Women’s strawweight champion Rose Namajunas (8-3, 1 KO, 5 SUBs) will meet Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade (19-6, 6 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC 237 on Saturday, May 11, 2019 at the Jeunesse Arena in Barra de Tijuca, Brazil. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
It’s not often a champion enters a fight as the underdog, but that will be the case for Rose Namajunas based on the opening odds from online oddsmakers for her title defense against Jessica Andrade.
The title bout headlines UFC 237 in Brazil, making it a home match for the challenger. Though it will be Thug Rose’s second defense, it’ll be her first time facing somebody besides Joanna Jedrzejczyk as the champ. After shocking JJ to win the strap in 2017, Rose had to win a “prove it” rematch, prevailing in a much closer 2018 contest. It was her only fight that year, as she took time off to recover from nagging injuries.
Andrade comes into the matchup on a three-fight win streak, beating excellent competition in Claudia Gadelha, Tecia Torres and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Despite the level of opponent, Andrade dominated each encounter, from ragdolling the powerful Gadelha to obliterating the durable Kowalkiewicz with a single punch in the first round.
Let’s take at the opening UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the prices, and surmise an early course of action before the betting public swings the lines.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Rose Namajunas +140
Jessica Andrade -170
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: check back for UFC odds
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Namajunas 3.72 / Andrade 6.58
Accuracy: Namajunas 41% / Andrade 51%
Absorbed per minute: Namajunas 3.72 / Andrade 5.04
Defense: Namajunas 60% / Andrade 51%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Namajunas 2.34 / Andrade 3.20
Takeown accuracy: Namajunas 59% / Andrade 58%
Takedown defense: Namajunas 45% / Andrade 75%
Submission average: Namajunas 0.9 / Andrade 0.5
Bet this Fight at BookMaker.eu
There are a few reasons why Andrade is favored here. First and foremost is the power discrepancy between the two. Jessica Andrade is built like a tank, with a ripped build. Rose Namajunas is wiry and lean. We saw Bate Estaca piledrive and suplex Gadelha - who could easily fight at 125 - multiple times with ease. In Namajunas’ last loss, she was physically overpowered in the clinch by Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
How does Namajunas deal with Andrade’s relentless attack? As a lanky striker, she fares well when she can establish range and rhythm, but the Brazilian marches forward and backs her opponents straight into the cage. Gadelha hit Andrade with some monster shots, who simply shook them off and kept coming. Namajunas has one knockout in her career and doesn’t figure to be able to really damage the challenger.
Despite her muscular build, we’ve never seen Andrade get tired either - even as she lands a ridiculous 6.58 significant strikes per minute. In her title match against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, the 27-year old was still fresh in the fifth round, though she was thoroughly outstruck for 25 minutes. That needs to be Namajunas’ blueprint, as JJ was able to stick-and-move and win a clear decision.
Early UFC odds pick: Wait to bet on Namajunas
We expect Rose’s price to get even better in the coming weeks, as oddsmakers will tempt to coax more bets on a fighter that seems to be at a physical disadvantage. If you wanted to bet the champ, we suggest waiting. Conversely, if you were convinced that Andrade takes the belt, lock in your bet before the line moves.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 237 takes place on Saturday, May 11, 2019 at the Jeunesse Arena in Barra de Tijuca, Brazil.
