Gunnar Nelson is slightly favored over Alex Oliveira at UFC 231 on Saturday night in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Oliveira is 19-5-1 in his career, while Nelson is 16-3-1 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 231, with the headliner a bout between Max Holloway and Brian Ortega. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card with four on FS1 and three on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Oliveira and Nelson and UFC picks.
UFC 231 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Alex Oliveira (19-5-1, 9-3 UFC)
Oliveira came into the UFC with a record of 10-2-1 and he has nine wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated K.J. Noons by submission, Joe Merritt by unanimous decision, Piotr Hallmann by KO, James Moontasri by unanimous decision, Will Brooks by TKO, Tim Means by submission, Ryan LaFlare by KO, Carlos Condit by submission, and Carlo Perdersoli Jr. by TKO; while losing to Gilbert Burns by submission, Donald Cerrone by submission, and Yancy Medeiros by TKO. Oliveira has been a pro since 2011 and has 12 wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. He has 10 first round finishes.
Gunnar Nelson (16-3-1, 7-3 UFC)
Nelson came into the UFC with a record of 9-0-1 and he has seven wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated DaMarques Johnson by submission, Jorge Santiago by unanimous decision, Omari Akhmedov by submission, Zak Cummings by submission, Brandon Thatch by submission, Albert Tumenov by submission, and Alan Jouban by submission; while losing to Rick Story by split decision, Demian Maia by unanimous decision, and Santiago Ponzinibbio by KO. Nelson has been a pro since 2007 and has three wins by TKO/KO and 12 by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Nelson said this to ufc.com about his upcoming fight against Oliveira, “I think he’s a great matchup and he’s a good opponent, I’ve watched him fight through the years and I’ve always enjoyed watching him fight. He’s got a good style, he’s aggressive and athletic and he’s ranked as well. He’s been doing well and I’m excited for this matchup; it’s a good challenge.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Oliveira 3.01 / Nelson 2.01
Accuracy: Oliveira 53% / Nelson 56%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Oliveira 2.08/ Nelson 3.70
Defense: Oliveira 46% / Nelson 51%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Oliveira 3.45/ Nelson 1.64
Accuracy: Oliveira 38% / Nelson 62%
Takedowns defended: Oliveira 57% / Nelson 70%
Submission average: Oliveira 0.9 / Nelson 1.1
UFC Picks
Oddmakers have Nelson slightly favored, but the interesting question is how Nelson comes back after more than a year off. Oliveira’s game is all about power, so he needs to keep this fight standing to win. Nelson has had many submission wins in the past and he would have the advantage on the mat. I think Nelson will find a way to get this fight to the mat, so I will take Nelson to get the win and also take the rounds to go under the total.
UFC 231 takes place at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada on Saturday night, December 8 with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Holloway vs. Ortega and seven preliminary bouts, with four on FS1 and three on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Featherweight - Max Holloway -126 vs. Brian Ortega
Women's Flyweight - Valentina Shevchenko -350 vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Welterweight - Gunnar Nelson -130 vs. Alex Oliveira
Featherweight - Hakeem Dawodu -170 vs. Kyle Bochniak
Light Heavyweight - Thiago Santos -210 vs. Jimi Manuwa
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Women's Strawweight - Cláudia Gadelha -325 vs. Nina Ansaroff
Women's Flyweight - Katlyn Chookagian -180 vs. Jessica Eye
Middleweight - Elias Theodorou -126 vs. Eryk Anders
Lightweight - Olivier Aubin-Mercier -123 vs. Gilbert Burns
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Light Heavyweight - Aleksandar Rakic -585 vs. Devin Clark
Bantamweight - Brad Katona -195 vs. Matthew Lopez
Welterweight - Chad Laprise -365 vs. Dhiego Lima
UFC 231 Odds at BookMaker.eu
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