Just one day before one of the biggest pay-per-view cards of the year, UFC fans will be treated to a free fight on FOX Sports 1 between two of the best featherweights in the world on Friday. Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar meets two-time title challenger Chad Mendes in the main event of the TUF 22 Finale. It’s a fight that could easily headline it’s own pay-per-view card. Let’s take a look at the odds and break down the fight.
The Ultimate Fighter 22 odds at BookMaker.eu
Frankie Edgar -170
Chad Mendes +140
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -215, under +178
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The lines for this fight have remained stagnant for the past couple of weeks, approximating equal action on both fighters during the leadup to the fight. I get why Edgar is favored, as he comes in on a four-fight win streak, but I really believe this is closer to a toss-up. The over/under is pretty high at 4.5 rounds, but Edgar does have a habit of going to the final bell.
THE STAKES
We’ve already mentioned that Edgar will receive a title challenge with a win. It’s a bit harder to think that Mendes will get the same treatment, as he’s already lost to current champion Jose Aldo twice and interim champion McGregor once. However, if McGregor beats Aldo on Saturday, a rematch with the Irish star makes sense - as Mendes took their first fight on just two weeks notice.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Edgar is one of the most well-rounded boxer-wrestlers in the UFC, seamlessly blending striking and takedowns together at an elite level. On the feet, Edgar has some of the best footwork in the sport, allowing him to throw three- to five-punch combinations from a variety of angles. He excels as a stick-and-move technician, although he’s somewhat held back by a lack of fight-ending power.
When it comes to changing levels, few are better than Edgar. From reactive double legs fired in reaction to an opponent’s volley to his knee taps during a combination of his own, “The Answer” can always keep fighters guessing. Once he’s on top, he suffocates his opponents with slick passes and punishing ground and pound.
Mendes is also one of the top punchers in the division, although his boxing is based more on unorthodox rhythm punctuated by concussive strikes. Whereas Edgar picks opponents apart with a high output of technical combinations, Mendes seeks to end fights with his one-punch KOs. However, this makes him a relatively low output striker and sets him up to lose rounds in prolonged standup battles.
In terms of wrestling, Mendes is arguably the best in the division at securing takedowns. A former collegiate wrestler, Mendes’ signature power double leg is picture perfect. When timed correctly, it’s nearly impossible to stop when he commits and drives. On the rare chance it fails, Mendes chains it superbly with singles and knee taps.
When Mendes gets on top, his game is predicated more on control than damage. While this succeeds in wearing down his opponents, it’d be nice to see him expand on a potent ground and pound game. Amazingly, nobody has ever succeeded in taking him down - setting up a compelling foil to Edgar’s elite wrestling ability.
THE SMART PLAYS
Like I said earlier, I feel like this is a toss-up. Mendes is the more dangerous fighter in the early rounds, but Edgar projects to take over in the championship rounds. What’s more, Edgar is one of the smartest fighters on the roster, often making adjustments and stealing rounds in the last minute. While I love Mendes as an underdog, Edgar has looked phenomenal in his past four bouts. I think that trend continues against Mendes.
PREDICTION: Edgar wins by unanimous decision.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale takes place Friday, December 11, 2015 at The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will stream live on FOX Sports 1 starting 6 p.m. ET.
