Bantamweight contenders Raphael Assuncao (27-5, 4 KOs, 10 SUBs) and Marlon Moraes (21-5, 10 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet at UFC Fight Night 144 on Saturday Feb 2, 2019 at Arena CFO in Castelao, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Time for a title eliminator! No. 3 bantamweight Raphael Assuncao and No. 4 Marlon Moraes both have solid cases to challenge TJ Dillashaw for the throne, but either one could cement their shot at the champ when they meet inside the octagon this Saturday in Brazil.
Assuncao is the perfect example of how a fighter’s lack of self-promotion can stall a successful career. Though 11-2 in the UFC, the 36-year old has never fought for the title despite compiling a winning streak of seven straight at one point in his career. Though his last loss came to Dillashaw in 2016, he did score a split decision win over the current titleholder in 2013. However, his unassuming personality, limited English and refusal to start beefs have kept him out of the spotlight.
Moraes lost to Assuncao in his UFC debut, though the fight was a close split decision in a three-rounder. Since then, he’s won three straight, beating John Dodson, Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. The wins over Sterling and Rivera resulted in spectacular knockouts, which undoubtedly helped raise his profile.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu with Moraes as a big favorite, giving you a very good price on a live ‘dog. Let’s break down the matchup and get to your best online betting options. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds on fight night as well.
UFC Fight Night 144 Betting at BookMaker.eu
Marlon Moraes: -175
Raphael Assuncao: +140
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -180 / +150
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Assuncao 3.38 / Moraes 3.25
Accuracy: Assuncao 40% Moraes 3.25
Absorbed per minute: Assuncao 2.23 / Moraes 33%
Defense: Assuncao 70% / Moraes 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Assuncao 1.4 / Moraes 0.47
Takedown accuracy: Assuncao 36% / Moraes 25%
Takedown defense: Assuncao 79% / Moraes 60%
Submission average: Assuncao 0.32 / Moraes 0.47
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Let’s go back to the first fight, which really could’ve gone either way. In a tense matchup, both men had their striking tested, and neither could really gain the upper hand on the other. Toward the end it was Moraes finding a bit more comfort in the standup, which makes sense because that’s where he does his best work.
How does that change in a five-rounder? The assumption here is that extra time would’ve given Moraes the opportunity to score enough points to get the victory. The 30-year old is catching his groove inside the UFC, and his powerful, dynamic striking has yielded two straight brutal knockouts. Though he is a relatively low output kickboxer, his hand and foot speed can be deceptively fast given how big he is for the weight class.
Assuncao is a natural counter-striker, choosing to let his opponents lead yet doing enough damage on the return to consistently find ways to win. Leading with a hard leg kick, Assuncao waits for an opportunity to land a punishing right hand. As his finishing record implies, the Brazilian gets great use out of his BJJ black belt, though doesn’t possess the wrestling to consistently impose it.
UFC Odds Pick: Assuncao to win at +140
While we understand why Moraes is the favorite here, we think that his opponent has greater value. Though Assuncao hasn’t ever been the guy to run roughshod over dudes, there is a reason why he’s beaten every top 135-pounder in the division. At +180, we think he ekes out another close win.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 144 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 144 takes place on Saturday Feb 2, 2019 at Arena CFO in Castelao, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
