Did you know that the Kentucky Derby betting favorite has won the race in each of the last five years? It used to be that you never wanted to bet on the Kentucky Derby favorite, but recently that has completely changed, with the favorite cashing in the last five races. The favorite this year is expected to be Justify, who is currently listed at odds of just over 3-1. Is Justify going to continue the recent trend of Derby favorites cashing on May 5?
Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu
Justify +365
Bolt D’Oro +545
Mendelssohn +625
Good Magic +685
Magnum Moon +825
Audible +885
Vino Rosso +1015
Solomini +2250
My Boy Jack +2250
Enticed +2550
Gronkowski +2550
Quip +3050
Sporting Chance +3050
Noble Indy +4050
Flameaway +4250
Free Drop Billy +4550
Promises Fulfilled +6550
Bravazo +6050
Combatant +6050
Lone Sailor +6550
Firenze Fire +8050
Kentucky Derby Favorites
If you have bet on the Kentucky Derby favorite in the last five years you have cashed your ticket every single time. Always Dreaming went off as the Kentucky Derby favorite last year and hit at odds of 4.7-1. You might not think that those odds are that exciting, but did you know that if you bet the exacta and had Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee you got paid an outstanding $336.20 for a $2 ticket. If you had the $2 trifecta which had Always Dreaming, Lookin at Lee and Battle of Midway you hit for a superb $16,594.20. The $1 superfecta that had Classic Empire as the fourth place horse paid over $75,000. And all of these exotic tickets had the Kentucky Derby favorite winning the race.
You might think after the last five years that betting the Derby favorite is the way to go, but historically that is not the case. Even with five straight favorites cashing in the Kentucky Derby, the favorite has still only won 51 out of 143 times. That is a winning rate of 35% for the Kentucky Derby betting favorite. That is still a pretty good number in horse racing betting, but it does mean that the favorite has lost 65% of the time.
Also, keep in mind that in the early years of the Kentucky Derby the fields were not nearly as large as they are now. The last five years have definitely been an aberration, as the Kentucky Derby betting favorite since 1980 has won less than 20% of the time. And that includes the last five years of the favorite winning the race.
2018 Kentucky Derby Favorite
The question of course is what is going to happen with Justify, the morning line favorite for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. The horse is probably going to go off at odds of around 3-1. What we do know about Justify is that his sire is Scat Daddy and his dam is Stage Magic. The horse is trained by Bob Baffert who has won the Derby four times in 27 tries. Baffert is best known for training Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The jockey for Justify will be Mike Smith who has only one win in 23 tries in the Kentucky Derby. Smith said after the Santa Anita Derby that Justify is only now starting to learn how to race and that he has “so much room to grow and to get even better.”
Justify is coming off a win over Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby. Justify will try to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the race without running as a 2-year old. History is made to be broken, but that is definitely a big red flag for this year’s Kentucky Derby betting favorite. And despite Mike Smith being a Hall of Fame jockey, Smith has only won the Kentucky Derby one time in his career. Perhaps the five-year winning streak for the Kentucky Derby betting favorite will come to an end on May 5.
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