PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win Valspar Championship

PGA Tour Picks

With the unofficial fifth Major in the books and the first official Major coming up, the PGA Tour will continue its stay in the Sunshine State with a stop in Tampa for the Valspar Championship. Many were concerned that the schedule change would lessen the field for this event, but some of the top players in the world are ready to peg it up at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort starting on Thursday.

The No. 1 ranked player in the world Dustin Johnson is coming off a T5 at last week’s PLAYERS and opened as the betting favorite with odds of +475 at BookMaker.eu. Jason Day is next in line on the odds board at +953 with Jon Rahm at +1053 rounding out the top three. Defending champion Paul Casey is further down the list with odds of +2265.

Odds to Win Valspar Championship at BookMaker.eu

Dustin Johnson +475

Jason Day +953

Jon Rahm +1053

Sergio Garcia +1608

Webb Simpson +2062

Patrick Reed +2240

Gary Woodland +2240

Paul Casey +2265

Henrik Stenson +3808

Jim Furyk +3814

Keegan Bradley +4075

Brandt Snedeker +4096

Louis Oosthuizen +4555

Kevin Kisner +4555

Jason Kokrak +5000

Lucas Glover +5100

Bubba Watson +5350

Rafa Cabrera Bello +5555

Sungjae Im +6169

Adam Hadwin +6475

Tyrell Hatton +6600

Russell Knox +7000

Ryan Moore +7100

Ollie Schniederjans +7900

Branden Grace +8050

J.T. Poston +9000

Charl Schwartzel +9500

Kevin Na +9500

Brian Harman +9550

Zach Johnson +9875

Russell Henley +10000

Michael Thompson +10000

Sung Kang +10500

Joaquin Niemann +11000

Chez Reavie +11000

Beau Hossler +11075

Bud Cauley +11500

Steve Stricker +11500

Joel Dahmen +11570

Chris Kirk +11700

Kevin Streelman +11700

Graeme McDowell +11750

Odds Analysis

Jim Furyk +3814

Considering his recent form and his success at Copperhead, it might be wise to ride the veteran for another week. The Ryder Cup captain had a near-miss last week, falling one swing off the lead at THE PLAYERS, and he finished with a flurry, carding a birdie on the 18th for a 67. In his previous start Furyk carded three sub-70s en route to a T9 at the Hondo Classic. His game fits the Copperhead layout, which is probably why he won here in 2010 and has three other top-10s, including a solo seventh last year, in 10 career starts. Furyk’s game is hitting fairways and greens, and that will serve him well.

Dustin Johnson +475

This isn’t just an event for the world No. 1 to get some work. It’s much more than that, and DJ feels he can tame the layout this time around. He’s teeing it up here for the first time since 2010 when he missed the cut. He also failed to reach the weekend in his 2008 debut, so I guess he’s feeling confident after nearly a decade. That and the layout underwent renovations, so it won’t be the same. He’s No. 1 for a reason, and that’s because he has two wins in his last five starts and he’s coming off a T5 at THE PLAYERS. And like Furyk, DJ’s game should play well here.

Jon Rahm +1053

The Spaniard is a gamer so don’t let the lack of course experience fool you. He’s making his debut at Copperhead and he faltered down the stretch last week after holding the lead at one point. Those could be signs that we need to fade Rahm, but I’m going the other way. He’s been one of the hottest players with 11 top-25s in his last 12 starts, and this layout won’t have as many big numbers. His ball striking numbers were strong last week and he’s been one of the better par-3 scorers, which will help on this track.

Brandt Snedeker +4096

If you’re looking for a big payout – aren’t we all are – then Snedeker is a solid pick to give it. His odds are not a clear representation of how he’s played recently and on this course. He is 8 of 9 in his career at this event with a solo fourth in 2011 and two top-10s. He’s also coming off a T5 at last Week’s PLAYERS and we know he can putt. If he keeps the ball in the fairways and hits the greens like last week we have ourselves a winner.

Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort – 7,340 yards, Par 71

Copperhead has hosted the event since its debut in 2000 and plays a long par-71. However, unlike most, the layout features four par-5s and five par-3s. For the most part it’s a straightforward course with narrow fairways and small greens. Two holes in particular have proven over the years to be the most difficult, the 13th and 16th. We’ll see on average about one in 20 golfers to play each hole sign a double bogey or worse. The course is relatively long, but it is an iron and second-shot layout. A lot of sticks in the bag will be used this weekend. The closing stretch starting at 16 is known as the Snake Pit and as one of the toughest on Tour. The conditions are expected to be ripe, giving the field one less thing to think about.

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

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