PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win John Deere Classic

PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win John Deere Classic

The swing through the Midwest comes to an end for the PGA Tour with this week’s playing of the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Illinois. Having the unenviable slot of being just ahead of the Open Championship, and thousands of miles away, the field is less than attractive for this year’s event. There may be a lack of big names but there’s no mistaking the talent level. A number of the Tour’s rising stars will get the chance to show off and as odds at online sportsbooks suggest, the field is wide open. Michael Kim makes his first Tour title defense and will be joined by recent winners Matthew Wolff and Nate Lashley.

Odds to Win John Deere Classic at

Collin Morikawa +1800

Viktor Hovland +1800

Joaquin Niemann +2200

Matthew Wolff +2200

Sungjae Im +2200

Kevin Streelman +2500

Charles Howell III +2500

Daniel Berger +2800

Brian Harman +2800

Lucas Glover +2800

Ryan Moore +3000

Zach Johnson +3000

Wyndham Clark +4000

Sam Burns +4000

Kevin Tway +4000

Kyle Stanley +4500

Bud Cauley +4500

Joel Dahmen +5000

Ryan Palmer +5000

Scott Brown +6000

Nate Lashley +6000

J.T. Poston +6000

Jason Dufner +6000

Bronson Burgoon +6600

Cameron Tringale +6600

Mackenzie Hughes +6600

Martin Laird +6600

Talor Gooch +6600

Nick Watney +6600

Vaughn Taylor +6600

Troy Merritt +7000

Peter Malnati +7000

Sam Ryder +7000

Brian Stuard +7000

Jhonattan Vegas +7000

Cameron Champ +7000

Denny McCarthy +7000

Danny Lee +7500

Harold Varner III +7500

Pat Perez +7500

Sepp Straka +8000

Nick Taylor +8000

Dylan Frittelli +8000

Beau Hossler +8000

Austin Cook +9000

Brice Garnett +10000

Carlos Ortiz +10000

Hank Lebioda +10000

Matt Jones +10000

Joey Garber +10000

Johnson Wagner +10000

Ryan Armour +10000

Roger Sloan +10000

Odds Analysis

Zach Johnson +3000

It’s a risk/reward course that’s yielded plenty of rewards over the years, so why not take a risky gamble on Johnson. He’s certainly a player to look at given his form at TPC Deere Run. He’s finished among the top 20 in seven of his last eight starts here with six of those placing him among the top five. But, and there’s always a but, he enters with five straight finishes of T35 or worse and hasn’t placed among the top 10 since last fall.

Sam Burns +4000

The Louisiana product appears to enjoy the summer heat in the Midwest. He fired a bogey-free 64 in the final round of the 3M Open last week to grab a share of seventh, his best finish since a T3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October. He has the potential to go low and this is the layout that gives him the best chance. He gained over eight strokes tee-to-green last week and needs to avoid the deflating high scores.

Joaquin Niemann +2200

Something has clicked in Niemann’s game and he’s riding a wave of strong form. He was up and down last week topping the field in par-4 scoring and stinking it up on the par 3s and 5s. Still, he finished T23 for his sixth consecutive finish of T31 or better with a pair of top 5s among them. His tee-to-green play has been phenomenal gaining strokes in five straight outings, and he comes in off a T23 last year.

Matthew Wolff +2200

There’s no denying this kid is a competitor. And now he’s a winner. In just his third start as a Tour pro, Wolff, with ice water in his veins, drained a 26-foot eagle putt on the final hole for a one-shot victory at the 3M Open. “I’ve been told so many times before that I was born for moments like these, I live for moments like these,” he said after the victory. Can he offer up the same intensity a week after his maiden victory? I think the answer is yes.

Troy Merritt +7000

A tournament like this offers up some value picks further down the odds board, and one player I’m watching closely is Merritt. When he is a factor it’s his approach game that paves the way. Last week, his putting was dynamite leading to a T7 at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a Northern Iowan so he’s playing close to home, which was a big help last week. He hasn’t fared well at Deere Run and he’s been a mixed bag coming in. He’s definitely a risk/reward play, and three top-20s in seven starts, along with last week’s showing, are promising.

Course: TPC Deere Run – 7,268 yards, Par 71

TPC Deere Run has hosted the JDC since 2000 with the winning score averaging right around 20-under. Kim torched the layout last year to a record 27-under topping the field by eight swings. Deere Run offers some of the widest fairways on Tour but it’s actually the short and accurate hitters that thrive on this track. As long as you are in the fairways, which the field hits about 71 percent of the time, you can attack the greens. Typically a layout that offers up plenty of birdies, the design of the course hasn’t been altered to change that thinking this week.

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, CBS

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