PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win BMW Championship

PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win BMW Championship

The FedExCup Playoffs continue this week with the top-70 golfers in the point standings making their way to Medinah Country Club for the BMW Championship. It’s the last chance for a number of players to make the top-30 for the final PGA Tour event of the season, the Tour Championship at East Lake. The usual suspects opened at the top of the odds board at online sportsbooks. Brooks Koepka is the betting favorite with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm the only players at better than 10/1 odds. There is no cut this week so every player in the field will have four rounds to make a statement.

Odds to Win BMW Championship at BookMaker.eu

Brooks Koepka +725

Rory McIlroy +775

Jon Rahm +850

Justin Thomas +1050

Dustin Johnson +1250

Patrick Cantlay +1550

Justin Rose +1705

Patrick Reed +1850

Adam Scott +2325

Webb Simpson +2550

Tommy Fleetwood +2750

Jordan Spieth +3225

Tony Finau +3850

Rickie Fowler +3875

Xander Schauffele +4250

Louis Oosthuizen +5025

Bryson Dechambeau +5250

Paul Casey +5250

Billy Horschel +5350

Hideki Matsuyama +5950

Collin Morikawa +6550

Jason Day +6850

Tiger Woods +7250

Brandt Snedeker +7445

Jason Kokrak +7525

Ian Poulter +7550

Ryan Moore +8050

Matt Kuchar +8250

Francesco Molinari +8500

Andrew Putnam +8750

Byeong Hun An +8750

Shane Lowry +9050

Abraham Ancer +9250

Gary Woodland +9550

Sungjae Im +9550

Marc Leishman +9550

Rory Sabbatini +9550

Rafael Cabrera Bello +9850

Chez Reavie +9850

Kevin Kisner +10000

Joaquin Niemann +10550

Lucas Glover +10550

Charles Howell III +11050

Keegan Bradley +11550

Adam Hadwin +11550

Cameron Champ +11550

Scott Piercy +12050

Harold Varner III +12050

Corey Conners +12550

Jim Furyk +12550

Wyndham Clark +12550

Troy Merritt +13550

C.T. Pan +13550

Phil Mickelson +14050

Dylan Frittelli +14550

Kevin Tway +15050

Emiliano Grillo +15050

Si Woo Kim +15050

JT Poston +15550

Ryan Palmer +16550

Keith Mitchell +17550

Vaughn Taylor +17550

Max Homa +18550

Graeme McDowell +18550

Sung Kang +18550

JB Holmes +18550

Nate Lashley +18550

Joel Dahmen +18550

Adam Long +20050

Odds Analysis

Tiger Woods +7250

The mind is willing but the body isn’t. Tiger tried to give it a go at The Northern Trust but withdraw after the opening round with an oblique injury, which is something entirely different than the back issues that slowed him all season. Woods got everybody excited following his Masters win, but that looks more like the exception and not the norm after watching Woods labor through a few events since April. Woods won the last two PGA Championships played at Medinah, but that seems like a long time ago. The odds are tempting, especially considering it’s Tiger, but the best move is to stay away.

Paul Casey +5250

While other golfers were scrambling around for points last week, Casey enjoyed a well-deserved week off. And he didn’t lose too much ground in the standings, which is another plus for him. He’s ready to finish with a flourish and will have a jump on the field, which makes him a great value pick at his odds. Not having a cut certainly helps as it gives Casey time to work out any kinks that may have developed during his down time. Likely not a problem considering he has seven top-10s worldwide this year.

Jon Rahm +850

At what point does Rahm become aggravated with just another top-10 or better finish? It happened again last week when the Spaniard finished two-shots off the pace for a T3. He’ll get the whole playoff thing right eventually, I suspect. For Rahm it was his sixth top-11 finish in nine playoff starts, and he’s been good in non-playoff events leading up to the BMW. He finished T11 or better in each of his last four PGA Tour starts with a solo seventh and two T3s.

Patrick Reed +1850

Reed was performing splendidly leading up to The Northern Trust and everything fell into place with his one-shot victory, now he heads to Medinah with even more confidence. Reed has placed among the top-25 in all of his last six starts, with a T10 at The Open. Another strong showing could attract the eye of Presidents Cup captain Tiger Woods while also moving further up the points list.

Billy Horschel +5350

An opening 72 at Liberty National could have been disastrous, but Horschel regrouped and fought his way into a T21. Putting certainly helped last week when he led the field in strokes gained with the flat stick while going perfect from eight feet and less on the greens. Hitting the dance floor will be the biggest challenge. However, once there Horschel should feel right at home and that could be enough to get him to the top of the leaderboard.

Course: Medinah Country Club – 7,657 yards, Par 72

Medinah has hosted five majors over the years with the PGA Championship in 1999 and 2006 the most recent. Both of those were won by Tiger Woods. The 2012 Ryder Cup took place at Medinah No. 3 as well as three U.S. Opens. At 7,657 yards the length is deceptive. According to a number of players the course plays shorter than that. Three par-5s take up a bulk of the yardage with two of them measuring over 600 yards. The fairways are tree-lined and the second rough is grown to four inches. It would be wise to stay out of the thick stuff. Water comes into play on a few holes, but not much the field will be concerned with. Overall, the track is in good condition and should yield average scores in the 70 range.

TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

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