The second of four straight tournaments in the state of Florida takes place this week when the PGA Tour assembles in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A strong field will attack the Bay Hill Club and Lodge to pay tribute to the tournament’s namesake, but we will see a new champion after Bryson DeChambeau withdrew earlier in the week due to injury. DeChambeau’s exit didn’t shake up the odds too much with world No. 1 Jon Rahm sitting atop the outright odds board. DeChambeau ended a string of five straight wins by international players with his one-shot victory over Lee Westwood. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of matchup betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Odds
Jon Rahm -178 vs. Rory McIlroy +141
Jon Rahm -191 vs. Scottie Scheffler +151
Jon Rahm -192 vs. Viktor Hovland +152
Rory McIlroy -120 vs. Scottie Scheffler -110
Rory McIlroy -119 vs. Viktor Hovland -111
Scottie Scheffler -112 vs. Viktor Hovland -118
Hideki Matsuyama +104 vs. Sungjae Im -134
Hideki Matsuyama -108 vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick -122
Sungjae Im -128 vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick -102
Tyrrell Hatton -112 vs. Will Zalatoris -118
Tyrrell Hatton -124 vs. Paul Casey -106
Will Zalatoris -111 vs. Paul Casey -119
Marc Leishman -124 vs. Adam Scott -106
Jason Kokrak -107 vs. Sam Burns -123
Max Homa -106 vs. Keith Mitchell -124
Russell Henley -133 vs. Gary Woodland +103
Billy Horschel -131 vs. Cameron Tringale +101
Tommy Fleetwood +106 vs. Sergio Garcia -136
Talor Gooch -118 vs. Maverick McNealy -112
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +112 vs. Corey Conners -142
Justin Rose -108 vs. Seamus Power -122
Luke List -110 vs. Lanto Griffin -120
Chris Kirk -130 vs. Kevin Na +100
Cameron Young -136 vs. Tom Hoge +106
Erik Van Rooyen -117 vs. Thomas Pieters -113
Sepp Straka -161 vs. Dylan Frittelli +128
Lee Westwood +130 vs. Ian Poulter -163
Keegan Bradley -170 vs. Kevin Kisner +135
Si Woo Kim -152 vs. Kyoung Hoon Lee +121
Rickie Fowler -119 vs. Patrick Reed -111
Martin Laird -135 vs. Matt Jones +105
Sebastian Munoz -130 vs. Carlos Ortiz +100
Sahith Theegala -127 vs. Andrew Putnam -103
Need to Know
Bay Hill has hosted since 1979 and there have been few changes since that first playing. The adjustments that were made were designed to increase the appeal to amateurs and the public while remaining a challenge to the Tour pros. A recent renovation added close to 50 yards putting the scorecard distance at 7,454 yards. It plays long but is inviting with wide fairways. However, thick rough puts accuracy at a premium and brings into play long irons. The par 4s don’t typically yield a lot of birdies so making up strokes will be done on the four par 5s that average 557 yards. Being in Florida there is plenty of water and wind always seems to be a factor. It did last year when 71 was the lowest final round score.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Picks
Rory McIlroy +141 vs. Jon Rahm
With Rahm making his API debut and McIlroy a fixture with plenty of success at this tournament, I find backing Rory at this price inviting. It’s hard to go against McIlroy and I backed him for the outright, so why not throw down on favorable odds. He’s made the cut in all seven trips with a win in 2018 among his five straight top-10s. He’s been good in 2022 with a T12 and solo third in the Middle East followed by a T10 at the Genesis making the decision even easier.
Tyrrell Hatton -112 vs. Will Zalatoris
We haven’t seen Hatton on Tour since last November, which could be concerning. But his play on the Euro circuit and past results at Bay Hill won’t stop me from backing him in this matchup. He’s perfect in five starts in this event with a win in 2020 and a top-5 in 2017. He grabbed a top-25 last year despite shooting two rounds of 77, so we know he can adapt. Two ET starts in January yielded him a T4 and T6 showing his game is in a good place.
Jason Kokrak -107 vs. Sam Burns
Kokrak is another player who’s carved up Bay Hill in his career with a large enough sample size to prove it’s no fluke. He’s played the weekend in seven of his last eight starts racking up four top-10s among his six top-20s. He’s played through in his last five starts this season with a win in Houston from November. He was also part of the winning team at the QBE Shootout, part of a nice run of form.
Keith Mitchell -124 vs. Max Homa
Mitchell has come close on a number of occasions to getting that second career Tour victory. And he’s been hovering around the top of the leaderboard in nearly every start this season. He placed among the top-12 in six of his last nine starts, including the last three. Toss in a T6 and T5 in two of his three starts here and Mitchell looks like a strong pick in this matchup.
Tommy Fleetwood +106 vs. Sergio Garcia
I’m giving Fleetwood a pass on last week’s MC since he’s played so well over the last few months. Most of that success has been on the European Tour where he placed among the top-13 in three of his last five starts while playing the weekend every time. And he’s no stranger to Bay Hill with three top-10s, including a podium finish in 2019.
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