The second of four straight tournaments in the state of Florida takes place this week when the PGA Tour assembles in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Another designated event on the schedule attracts a strong field to take a twirl around Arnie’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The top three players at the top of the outright odds board have all been ranked No. 1 in the world over the past year with current pole sitter Jon Rahm leading the way followed closely by Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. They are currently the best in the business and they are the only players with shorter than 10/1 odds. You can also find them in matchups against each other. Scheffler is the defending champ but will be hard pressed to repeat with 40 of the top 50 players in the world scheduled to compete. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of matchup betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Odds
Jon Rahm -128 vs. Rory McIlroy +107
Jon Rahm -132 vs. Scottie Scheffler +110
Rory McIlroy -105 vs. Scottie Scheffler -115
Max Homa +108 vs. Collin Morikawa -129
Max Homa +108 vs. Xander Schauffele -129
Collin Morikawa -110 vs. Xander Schauffele -110
Justin Thomas +106 vs. Tony Finau -127
Justin Thomas +106 vs. Patrick Cantlay -127
Tony Finau +100 vs. Patrick Cantlay -120
Will Zalatoris -140 vs. Cameron Young +117
Sungjae Im -120 vs. Jason Day +100
Viktor Hovland -142 vs. Sam Burns +118
Tyrrell Hatton -132 vs. Jordan Spieth +110
Matthew Fitzpatrick -155 vs. Shane Lowry +129
Tom Kim -110 vs. Hideki Matsuyama -110
Sahith Theegala +109 vs. Corey Conners -130
Chris Kirk -129 vs. Justin Rose +108
Tommy Fleetwood +100 vs. Seamus Power -120
Rickie Fowler -138 vs. Adam Scott +115
Gary Woodland +115 vs. Keegan Bradley -138
Si Woo Kim -110 vs. Min Woo Lee -110
Billy Horschel -130 vs. Lucas Herbert +109
Adam Hadwin -110 vs. Tom Hoge -110
Alex Noren -110 vs. Aaron Wise -110
Adrian Meronk -132 vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout +110
Nick Taylor +110 vs. Russell Henley -132
Luke List -158 vs. Ryan Fox +131
Thomas Detry +110 vs. Patrick Rodgers -132
Sam Ryder +110 vs. Taylor Moore -132
Harris English +100 vs. Sepp Straka -120
Padraig Harrington +105 vs. Zach Johnson -125
Need to Know
Bay Hill has hosted since 1979 and there have been few changes since that first playing. The adjustments that were made were designed to increase the appeal to amateurs and the public while remaining a challenge for the Tour pros. A recent renovation added close to 50 yards putting the scorecard distance at 7,454 yards. It plays long but is inviting with wide fairways. However, thick rough puts accuracy at a premium and brings into play long irons. The par 4s don’t typically yield a lot of birdies so making up strokes will be done on the four par 5s that average 557 yards. Being in Florida there is plenty of water and wind always seems to be a factor like it was the past two editions with final round scores averaging nearly 75.5.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Picks
Rory McIlroy +107 vs. Jon Rahm
The matchup between these two never quite materialized with McIlroy trying to find his groove on the PGA side. After winning in Dubai earlier in the year he placed outside the top-25 in the last two designated events. But I like McIlroy at Bay Hill and at plus odds he looks like a good play. Rory won here in 2018 and has never finished outside the top 15 in eight career starts. Rahm might be the best player in the world right now, but Florida hasn’t yielded him the results other places have, which is why I’m fading him.
Max Homa +108 vs. Collin Morikawa
With two wins already this season Homa has been as solid as just about anyone on Tour. He has a first, second and T3 in his last four starts winning the FIO while also taking the crown in Napa to open the season. He’s also done well at Bay Hill going T17-T10-T24 in his three trips. Homa upped his game the last two seasons joining the elite players on Tour and backing him at plus odds is a good play.
Jason Day +100 vs. Sungjae Im
Another former winner who arrives on a run of strong form, Day has also upped his game recently making him a value play at even money. He finished among the top-10 in each of his last three starts and has four top-10s among his seven top-25s over his last nine starts. He hasn’t been as successful here since winning in 2016, but he also hasn’t been playing as well as he is currently, so I have plenty of confidence backing the Aussie in this matchup.
Tony Finau +100 vs. Patrick Cantlay
I found little value in other players I wanted to back so I kept coming back to Finau. He’s been solid again this season with a win in Houston among his three top-10s among his six to-20s over his last six starts. The long par 5s play to his strength of distance off the tee and his strong short game is also a plus. He has the tools to be more successful than he has been at Bay Hill and if he puts it all together he should contend for the outright as well.
Tommy Fleetwood +100 vs. Seamus Power
He hasn’t played to his standards recently but Fleetwood’s success at Bay Hill should help him feel better about his game. Since debuting in 2017 he’s 5 for 6 with three top-10s and a best of T3 in 2019. Fleetwood has a complete game, which is probably why he’s been so successful, and the ability to navigate through turbulent conditions allowed him to finish in the top-20 last year. He earned a top-5 at the CJ CUP and has three top-20s in his last four Tour starts giving me the confidence to back him in this matchup.
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