After a brutal week in Spain the European Tour makes its way to Vilamoura for the 14th edition of the Portugal Masters. I say brutal because not one player finished under par at Valderrama. John Catlin survived for the victory with a final score of +2. That won’t be the case at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course where scores routinely hover in the -20 range, a welcome relief for those making the short trip. Pegging it up at the Portugal Masters for the first time in four years, Tommy Fleetwood was installed as the overwhelming favorite. Steven Brown returned to defend his title after upsetting the field last year and Catlin is going for two in a row. Those players are featured in matchups with updated odds available at BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place a wager.
Portugal Masters Matchups Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kalle Samooja -125 vs. Julian Suri +105
Scott Vincent -115 vs. Richard Bland -105
Nacho Elvira -105 vs. Oliver Fisher -115
Marcus Armitage -105 vs. Maximilian Kieffer -115
Justin Walters +105 vs. Alexander Bjork -125
Lorenzo Gagli -115 vs. Wade Ormsby -105
Johannes Veerman -160 vs. Lucas Bjerregaard +140
Wil Besseling -130 vs. Matthieu Pavon +110
Alexander Levy -105 vs. Adrian Meronk -115
Steven Brown -105 vs. Sebastian Heisele -115
Sebastian Soderberg +100 vs. Pablo Larrazabal -120
Brandon Stone +105 vs. Jack Senior -125
Guido Migliozzi -120 vs. Calum Hill +100
Joost Luiten -130 vs. Marcus Kinhult +110
Benjamin Hebert +105 vs. Paul Waring -125
Laurie Canter +125 vs. Antoine Rozner -145
Jamie Donaldson +100 vs. Wilco Nienaber -120
George Coetzee -130 vs. Ryan Fox +110
Matthew Southgate -150 vs. Alvaro Quiros +130
Wilco Nienaber +105 vs. Chris Paisley -125
Jason Scrivener +105 vs. Paul Waring -125
John Catlin +100 vs. Ross Fisher -120
Jorge Campillo -110 vs. Marcus Kinhult -110
Jorge Campillo +105 vs. Joost Luiten -125
Thorbjorn Olesen -125 vs. Jordan Smith +105
Tommy Fleetwood -230 vs. Ryan Fox +190
Matthew Jordan -110 vs. Robert Rock -110
Jamie Donaldson -110 vs. Chris Paisley -110
Jason Scrivener -105 vs. Benjamin Hebert -115
Ashun Wu -110 vs. Jake McLeod -110
George Coetzee -125 vs. Haotong Li +105
Haotong Li -110 vs. Ryan Fox -110
Tommy Fleetwood -195 vs. George Coetzee +160
Need to Know
At just under 7,200 yards, the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course isn’t very challenging. It’s a stock par 71 that caters to its resort guests and the pros usually eat it up, evidenced by the past winning scores. Brown won last year at -17, the worst winning score in five years. In 2013 Alexander Levy won at 18-under in only two rounds. In 2018 Oliver Fisher carded the Tour’s first sub-60 round with a 59. You get the idea; the course will yield low scores. Trees were added, bunkers reassigned, and the rough grew taller for the 2019 edition making the layout more difficult. Still, wide fairways and larger than average greens make this a scorers delight. Now on to the important stuff. I split my matchup picks last week with a push giving me an 11-2-2 record the last three weeks. Let’s continue that heater.
Odds Analysis
George Coetzee -125 vs. Haotong Li
While we haven’t seen Coetzee on the Euro Tour since before the lockdown, he was chewing up opponents in his native South Africa on the Sunshine Tour. He followed a runner-up showing with a win last week and is primed to get back in the mix. I wavered on this one since Li won me some money in recent matchups. However, a disastrous start at Valderrama led to a withdrawal and he’s playing with new sticks this week. For that I have to back Coetzee despite the elevated price.
Jason Scrivener +105 vs. Paul Waring
Unlike Li, Scrivener didn’t give up after an awful start at Valderrama. Instead he battled going 1-over across the last 27 holes. It wasn’t enough to avoid a cut, but it was a sign that he can play through adversity. Still, his form is solid coming in with three top-15s prior to Spain and he’s placed among the top-30 in his last three starts at Dom Pedro. There’s value in his price and his game.
Wilco Nienaber +105 vs. Chris Paisley
I figured I better cash in on Nienaber before the betting markets catch up. He’s been strong in his short stint on Tour and his T6 at Valderrama opened a lot of eyes. He’s a powerful hitter and should take advantage of the layout. Though he stubbed his toe when the conditions got to him at the Wales Open, Nienaber has two top-10s along with a T22 in five post-COVID starts. Just last year he was South Africa’s top-ranked amateur so we know he’s got game.
Sebastian Soderberg +100 vs. Pablo Larrazabal
Soderberg is another player who got swallowed up by Valderrama, missing the cut following a second-round 78. I’ll give him a pass on that one and look to form prior to Spain as an indicator that his game is in a good place. He finished the UK Swing with back-to-back top-10s at Celtic Manor and returns to a course where he shared seventh at 13-under in 2017. Soderberg’s putting has kept him in a lot of tournaments this season giving him a chance to make up strokes on the green. Drive for show, putt for dough as they say.
Laurie Canter +125 vs. Antoine Rozner
The resort-style courses yield plenty of birdies and eagles. Canter is one player stacking them up, making him a strong play this week. He hasn’t had much success at Dom Pedro, but he enters in much better shape than previous years. He hits the ball a long way and ranks third on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee. His play around the greens has been suspect and prevented better finishes than T10 at the Hero Open and T5 at the Wales Open. Still, he has enough to prevail in this matchup and I’m buying at his price.
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