A new venue awaits the European Tour field this week as golfers prepare for the Italian Open at Chervo Golf Club in Brescia. The tournament lost some of its luster being pulled from the Rolex Series rotation thusly we see a drop in the talent level. Still, we have a moderately strong field headlined by betting favorite Matt Wallace, two-time major champion Martin Kaymer and defending champion Bernd Wiesberger. Renato Paratore, Guido Migliozzi and Lorenzo Gagli are among a strong contingent of Italians looking to capture their country’s national open. The odds board is top heavy, however, that doesn’t mean we see a winner from that group. And playing a course few have seen opens up the possibilities. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds and to place your wager.
Odds to Win Italian Open at BookMaker.eu
Matt Wallace +1000
Martin Kaymer +1100
Victor Perez +1200
Bernd Wiesberger +1400
Lee Westwood +1600
Jordan Smith +2500
Matthias Schwab +2500
Renato Paratore +2500
Wilco Nienaber +2500
Adri Arnaus +2500
Adrian Otaegui +2800
Matthew Jordan +3300
Joost Luiten +3500
Connor Syme +3500
Joachim B Hansen +4000
Antoine Rozner +4500
Jorge Campillo +4500
David Horsey +5000
Thorbjorn Olesen +5000
Johannes Veerman +5000
Chris Paisley +5500
Marcus Armitage +5500
Marc Warren +5500
Guido Migliozzi +6000
Jamie Donaldson +6000
Scott Jamieson +6000
Wil Besseling +6600
Jason Scrivener +6600
Laurie Canter +6600
Adrien Saddier +7500
Maverick Antcliff +8000
Steven Brown +8000
Dean Burmester +8000
Richard Bland +8000
Rikard Karlberg +8000
Adrian Meronk +8000
Nicolas Colsaerts +8000
Jack Senior +9000
Odds Analysis
Bernd Wiesberger +1400
I backed Wiesberger at this tournament last year and he paid off with a 1-shot victory. His form ahead of the 2019 edition was much better than what we’ve seen recently and that win came on a different course, so there is risk particularly at his price. He hasn’t been bad playing the weekend in his last eight events, which makes him a target on an alternate market as well. This is a layout that should play to his strengths of accuracy and putting, and I’m fine with throwing down on him for the outright win in a weaker field than what he toppled last year.
Joachim B Hansen +4000
A strong showing at Wentworth a few weeks has Hansen trending upward. He played in the final group forging a T7 after stumbling a bit on the close. He’s been solid in four of his last five starts and he played well despite missing the cut at the Scottish Open. I’ll throw that result out the window. Snagging a top-20 at Valderrama is a sign that he can play the tough courses and his tee-to-green form lodged him inside the top-10 three times. Improved work with the flat stick has him eyeing that maiden Tour victory.
Adri Arnaus +2500
Another consistently good player looking for a breakthrough, Arnaus has all the talent to be a winner and this layout offers a great opportunity. He can smack the ball off the tee and with few distractions he should have plenty of birdie chances. Arnaus has started to regain the form that put him on the fast track last year with three runner-up showings. He’s giving himself a chance now he needs to pull it all together. He won twice in Italy on the Alps Tour and a return should benefit him.
Chris Paisley +5500
That T4 last week at the Scottish Championship came out of nowhere after Paisley missed the cut in his previous four starts. One thing to remember about him is that he’s streaky, and when he gets on a roll it can last a few weeks. Right before the lockdown Paisley went T7-T3 in three starts with another top-20 out of the break. I’ll back him at his current price knowing that the Chervo track is one that he can successfully navigate.
Laurie Canter +6600
Another big hitter who can attack the par-5s on the Chervo layout leading to scoring opportunities, I was a bit surprised to see Canter priced this high. His last start was a MC at the Scottish Open that may have had something to do with it. Form leading up to that was strong with three top-5s among five top-20s in eight starts. He bounced back from a MC with a T5 at the Celtic Classic showing the resolve of a competitor.
Course: Chervo Golf Club – 7,434 yards, par 72
First played in 1925 and part of the European Tour rotation since its inception in 1972, the Italian Open has played a number of courses over the years. Situated next to Lake Garda, Chervo Golf Club plays host to the country’s national open for the first time. At 7,434 yards it’s a long course which gives value to big hitters. And being a resort course there are few obstacles getting in the way. There is little to go on in terms of course data since this is the first Tour event at Chervo. However, other than the length, the flat, exposed layout looks relatively easy. The four par 5s are reachable, though two of them are surrounded by water. All in all it looks like a course that can yield plenty of birdie opportunities.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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