The European Tour season comes to an end this week with the top 60 players in the Race to Dubai all participating in the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai. Points leaders Franceso Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood, who teamed up to win four points for the Ryder Cup winning team a few months ago, will go head-to-head in a battle to be crowned European No. 1.
With a healthy purse and a top-notch field competing, we’ve typically seen a high-profile player hoist the trophy. And the field is loaded with Rory McIlroy topping the BookMaker.eu odds board at +725. Defending champion Jon Rahm is the second favorite at +1005 followed by Sergio Garcia at +1125. Fleetwood needs a win and a lower finish by Molinari to win the points title for a second straight year and the cash that goes along with it. He’s a +1150 favorite while the Spaniard is further down the list at +2477.
Odds to Win 2018 DP World Tour Championship at BookMaker.eu
Rory McIlroy +725
Jon Rahm +1005
Sergio Garcia +1125
Tommy Fleetwood +1150
Xander Schauffele +1650
Tyrrell Hatton +1775
Haotong Li +1850
Thorbjorn Olesen +2227
Francesco Molinari +2477
Henrik Stenson +2677
Patrick Reed +3052
Alex Noren +3457
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3457
Shane Lowry +3854
Ross Fisher +4125
Rafa Cabrera Bello +4150
Lucas Bjerregaard +4400
Matt Wallace +4400
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +4650
Lee Westwood +5125
Thomas Pieters +5555
Branden Grace +5845
Martin Kaymer +6250
Ian Poulter +6318
Thomas Detry +6555
Eddie Pepperell +9000
Dylan Frittelli +9500
Dean Burmester +9500
Danny Willett +9800
Jordan Smith +10000
Tom Lewis +10000
Andrea Pavan +10000
Andy Sullivan +10000
Lucas Herbert +11000
Alexander Bjork +11000
Russell Knox +12000
Joost Luiten +12000
Mikko Korhonen +12000
Ryan Fox +12000
Erik Van Rooyen +12000
Chris Paisley +12000
Alexander Levy +12500
Robert Rock +12500
Jorge Campillo +12500
Chris Wood +12500
Adrian Otaegui +12500
Mike Lorenzo-Vera +12500
Sam Horsfield +12500
Paul Dunne +13500
Aaron Rai +14500
Odds Analysis
Rory McIlroy +725
He hasn’t played his best golf lately, but if McIlroy is going to break out of his slump now’s the time. He’s won in Dubai four times and he’s tamed this course twice, taking the title in 2012 at -23 and again in 2015 with a -21. He’s played the Earth Course eight times scoring below par in 31 of 32 rounds with a spectacular 68.2 scoring average. McIlroy knows everything there is to know about the layout and he said recently, “If there’s any golf course or any place in the world where I can get a bit of confidence from, it’s Dubai.”
Tommy Fleetwood +1150
With an outside chance of stealing the points lead from his good buddy Molinari and claiming the prize money that goes with it, Fleetwood has some added incentive to perform well this week. His best showing in five career starts here is a share of ninth two years ago. He stroked a pair of 65s in the middle of last year’s event and was tied for fourth heading into the final round only to shoot 74 and drop off the pace. Poor course form isn’t always a factor for Fleetwood, who won at both Abu Dhabi and Le Golf National.
Haotong Li +1850
He got over the disappointment of losing the Turkish Airlines Open in a playoff by placing in the top-5 last week at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Now Li just needs a fast start in Dubai. He was tied for 30th here two years ago after an opening 74, but rallied to improve his standing over the next three. An opening 72 last year put him in scramble mode, but again he climbed up the leaderboard for a share of 13th. Recent form is solid as well with T11 or better in each of his last five starts.
Henrik Stenson +2677
There’s a good payday if he hits and Stenson is well rested since he hasn’t competed since the Ryder Cup. If you drop a wager on him, hope for the good Stenson because inconsistency has been his trademark on this layout. He hasn’t played this event since a T9 in 2016, but he has two trophies to his name with back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014. His 25-under in ’13 is a tournament record, so he knows how to play. However, he followed that up with a T59 the following year.
Course: Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates - 7,675-yards, Par-72
The course has always hosted the event, which is celebrating its 10th anniversary this year, and we’ve seen low scores in the past with eight of the previous nine winners going 16-under or better with four into the -20s. It stretches to nearly 7,700 yards and plays well to big hitters. The entire layout offers a variety of intriguing holes and requires every stick in the bag. The course is known for its finishing stretch with a birdie opportunity on 15 and the island green 17 that calls for an accurate iron shot. And the 18th asks golfers to play with a water hazard that runs the entire length of the hole.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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