European Tour Picks – Odds to Win Italian Open

European Tour Picks – Odds to Win Italian Open

Italy’s capital will play host to the country’s national open this week when the European Tour heads to Rome for the Italian Open. A strong field will assemble at the Olgiata Golf Club for the fifth of eight Rolex Series events. And with the Tour season winding down Ryder Cup qualification points and Race to Dubai rankings points are up for grabs. Paul Casey is making his tournament debut, but that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers at offshore sportsbooks from making him the betting favorite. Francesco Molinari has won his home open twice previously and will be a threat in a packed field. Visit for a complete list of betting odds and to place your wager.

Odds to Win Italian Open at

Paul Casey +975

Francesco Molinari +1050

Justin Rose +1150

Shane Lowry +1550

Matthew Fitzpatrick +2050

Matt Wallace +2250

Danny Willett +2600

Erik Van Rooyen +2650

Andrea Pavan +2850

Tyrrell Hatton +3050

Alex Noren +3550

Thomas Pieters +3850

Bernd Wiesberger +3850

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4450

Ian Poulter +4450

Mike Lorenzo-Vera +5050

Adri Arnaus +5250

Matthias Schwab +5250

Haotong Li +5850

Robert MacIntyre +6050

Joost Luiten +6350

Mikko Korhonen +6850

Justin Harding +6850

Guido Migliozzi +7350

Jordan Smith +7450

Eddie Pepperell +7550

Andrew Johnston +8250

Lee Westwood +8550

Tom Lewis +8750

Rory Sabbatini +8850

Joakim Lagergren +9050

Martin Kaymer +9050

Paul Waring +9050

Ross Fisher +9050

Kiradech Aphibarnrat +9050

Thomas Detry +9250

Marcus Kinhult +9550

Victor Perez +9550

Matthew Southgate +9850

Edoardo Molinari+10550

Alexander Levy +10550

Julian Suri +10550

Sam Horsfield +10550

Gavin Green +10550

Victor Dubuisson +10550

Richie Ramsay +10550

Kurt Kitayama +10550

Odds Analysis

Francesco Molinari +1050

Winning your national open is quite a thrill, just ask Jon Rahm. And Molinari isn’t tired of the feeling having tasted victory at this event twice previously. And he’s been a beast in his homeland. He won the Italian Open in 2006 and 2016 and he’s placed sixth and runner-up the last two years to give him 12 top-20s in the last 14 tournaments. He just got greased up for a run to the title with a T14 at Wentworth followed by a T23 at the Safeway Open.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +2050

If Fitz wants a challenge he’ll get one on this course. And he has some familiarity with the layout that many in the field don’t, so that has to give him an edge. Can he take advantage of that and produce a victory? I like his odds. He showed some spunk overcoming a slow start to grab a T7 in a Challenge Tour event here a few years back. His strong mid-iron play will serve him well on those demanding par-4s where he can make up strokes or lengthen a lead. Either way, I’ll buy him at his current price.

Matt Wallace +2250

Establishing himself as a world-class golfer in Italy what’s not to like about this guy? Wallace digs playing in this part of the world having won three Alps Tour events along with a fourth place showing in his only Challenge Tour event played in Italy. He’s had a strong season and continues to play well with a third at the KLM Open. He looks like a good fit for Olgiata with a reliable approach game.

Andrea Pavan +2850

We gave both Molinari’s a nod for playing their national open. Another homie to consider is Pavan, who just keeps popping up on our radar. His form is splendid with a T16 or better in five of his last six starts and he’s coming off a T12 at the Open de Espana with three rounds of 67 or better. We won’t mention that R2 75 that put him out of the running. And this is like playing in his backyard having learned the game at Olgiata. That has to be worth something.

Bernd Wiesberger +3850

He hasn’t put three solid rounds together since winning the Scottish Open back in July and taking last week off will be what gets Wiesberger back in sorts. He hasn’t been bad since that victory snagging a T5 at the European Open and a top-20 at the BMW PGA Championship last month, but he’s played a lot of golf over the summer and the down time will be beneficial. He’s fallen down the odds board and that’s why I like him.

Course: Olgiata Golf Club – 7,523-yards, par-71

Located 15 miles north of Rome, Olgiata is a magnificent tree-lined, parkland venue. It hasn’t hosted a European Tour event since 2002, so it is new to most, but not to all. Francesco Molinari’s brother Edoardo won here a decade ago while competing on the challenge Tour. He’s included in the field with odds of +10550. The layout has changed considerably in the 17 years since the last Italian Open took place here. A massive remodel took place a few years ago when Italy made a bid to host the 2020 Olympics. It didn’t get the games but it did get a modernized course. The easiest way to do that was to add length. The track now plays at over 7,500 yards at par 71. There are several demanding par-4s which will keep the scores lower than what we’ve seen at past events here.

TV Coverage: Golf Channel

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