Saquon Barkley is sure to earn the money owed to him in the second year of his $31.2M contract. Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer in the Big Apple to force opposing defenses to account for the Giants’ passing game. While Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Evan Engram are fine players, they won’t have opposing defenses shaking in their cleats. With that, Barkley is going to be staring into a bevy of stacked boxes over the season’s entirety. Though New York is likely to face a multitude of negative game scripts and defenses selling out to stop the run, it hasn’t stopped linemakers at online sportsbooks from installing Barkley the rushing yards dominator of 2019-20 with his 1,300.5 rushing yards the highest impost on the betting board; his combined rushing+receiving yards total is also the highest at 1900.5. Does this uber talent have it in him to outshine those lofty expectations? We’re about to find out.
Total Rushing Yards: 1300.5
Offensive Philosophy
As a team, the Giants only rushed for a grand total of 1,650 yards last season. Barkley accrued over 1,300 of them and became a member of the 1k/1k club in the process. Most impressive was the fact that he was able to churn out all those yards on the ground even though offensive coordinator Mike Shula only called run-plays a tick under 36 percent of the time; an output that saw NY ranked No. 28 overall in run percentage. Barkley was able to rack up those lofty rushing stats with his explosiveness that led to a number of big gainers. A whopping 641 of his rushing yards came on just 16 carries, and he led the league with seven carries over 40 yards.
Even with a below average offensive line in front of him, No. 26 had no issue creating opportunities all by his lonesome evidenced by the 688 yards created - an output that led the league. Well, he’s going to need to be creative once again with the G-MEN’s front wall ranked No. 18 overall by the staff at Pro Football Focus. Even though he’s likely to see base fronts better than 50 percent of the time, Saquon still looks to be a shoe-in to combine for 2,000+ yards from scrimmage and have an excellent shot at surpassing the highest rushing yards total on the board at online betting sites.
New York Giants Football Schedule
Week 1: @Cowboys
Week 2: Bills
Week 3: @Buccaneers
Week 4: Redskins
Week 5: Vikings
Week 6: @Patriots
Week 7: Cardinals
Week 8: @Lions
Week 9: Cowboys
Week 10: @Jets
Week 11: Bye Week
Week 12: @Bears
Week 13: Packers
Week 14: @Eagles
Week 15: Dolphins
Week 16: @Redskins
Week 17: Eagles
Schedule Breakdown
Barkley is currently going off the board as the No. 1 or 2 pick in fantasy football drafts regardless of whether it’s a standard or PPR league. The kid is instant offense any way he handles the rock! With that, it doesn’t truly matter how easy or difficult his schedule is as exceptional a talent he truly is. Still, the Giants face a middle of the road schedule when it comes to defensive strength. It ranks out No. 17 overall and kicks off with a Week 1 battle in Dallas against a Cowboys team that held him to just 108 combined scoreless yards a season ago in his second career start as a professional running back. A stingy Buffalo defense that had issues stopping the run follows at home with a trip to Tampa Bay lined up the following week; he should eat against the Bucs’ porous run defense.
Then its three straight matchups against the above average run defenses of the Redskins, Vikings and Patriots before returning home for a tasty matchup against the Cardinals and their league-worst run defense of a year ago. Another matchup against Big D and a visit to the Windy City look to be the only daunting matchups remaining on the schedule the rest of the way. Barkley was one of a few running backs that solved the Bears stout run defense from a year ago.
The Bets
If Barkley goes on to surpass both his rushing and or combined props at top rated sportsbooks, he will have earned it. The second-year running back is going to be the focal point of the Giants’ offense this season, and every defense he runs up against will be fully aware of it. Though he’s young, all the extra energy expended will at some point take a toll. Whether it inhibits his overall production or forces him to miss a couple games remains to be seen.
Bottom line, I foresee a decrease in the big running plays that helped pave the way for an enormous rookie campaign. However, he will once again be one of the best backs in the league at snagging passes out of the backfield. With that, I’d lean more towards supporting the over of his rushing+receiving prop than his rushing yards prop as many stacked boxes he figures to run into over the course of the season. If Daniel Jones takes over the QB1 job and runs with it forcing opposing defenses to respect the Giants passing game, all bets are off. There are simply just too many unknowns for me to get involved with any Saquon futures. Best of luck if you decide to get your hands dirty.
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