After several weeks of success on my NFL top total plays I endured a losing Week 8. Losing is a risk when it comes to gambling so expect that to happen. When wagering on the NFL every week the key is to win more than you lose and so far I’ve been able to do that turning a small profit so far. It looks like the offense is picking up around the league with 56 percent of the games cashing the OVER in the past three weeks. However, with nearly 54 percent of the games ending below the total, the UNDER still holds a slight edge for the season.
Thanks once again to the Denver Broncos for providing me a winner in Week 8. Unfortunately that was the only one. I bought their game against Jacksonville with a total of 45.5, which at the time seemed way high. Turns out it was with the number wagered down to 41 by kickoff. The teams still played below the total in Denver’s 21-17 victory. The UNDER is now 7-1 in Denver games this season, which seems about right for a team that’s next to last in scoring while allowing the second-fewest points. The Dolphins and Lions were struggling on offense heading into their matchup, so of course the teams went off combining for 58 points and cashing the OVER. I didn’t see the clubs going over the total of 51.5 and backed the UNDER.
And I was blind to seeing the Raiders get shutout costing me in their game with the Saints. New Orleans did its part getting the game halfway to the closing total of 48, but the Raiders couldn’t score in the 24-0 setback. Considering all the different ways we’ve seen teams score points and having arguably the best kicking in the NFL, the Raiders didn’t even cross midfield until the fourth quarter. Oh well, expect the unexpected and move on, which is what I shall do to Week 9 of the NFL schedule looking to improve my winning top total plays.
NFL Week 9 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 9
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Pick: OVER 45
Season stats and recent form contradict each other ahead of this matchup. The Bears have the NFL’s worst passing game and average fewer than 20 points, but they can run the football and totaled 62 points in their last two games. They also gutted the defense of two premiere players in Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith. I don’t see the group getting any better and last week’s disaster in Dallas could be a sign of things to come.
With Tua Tagovailoa getting back in shape the Miami offense can return to early season form. The Fins rallied to beat Detroit, 31-27, last week and both teams added some offense at the deadline. Chicago looks to improve its pass attack with Chase Claypool while the Fins added Jeff Wilson to an already deep group of skill players. If conditions are tame this game hits the OVER.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Pick: UNDER 39.5
With the Broncos off this week I have to turn to another team that can’t score to get my UNDER fix. If the benching of Matt Ryan ahead of last week’s game wasn’t enough, the Colts endured more changes to an offense that averages just over 16 points. The club fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady and traded Nyheim Hines making things that much more difficult for Sam Ehlinger. The Colts scored more than 20 points once and with their top offensive weapon Jonathan Taylor experiencing ankle soreness they will be limited.
Throw out that mess to the Bears in Week 7 and the Pats have been solid defensively over the past four games. Last week they held the Jets to 51 rushing yards and intercepted three passes in a 22-17 win playing below the closing total of ... 39.5.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: UNDER 50
The Cardinals should be better on offense and the Seahawks are overachieving. That sounds like reasons to back the over in this NFC West matchup. But instead I’m going the other way. Sure, the clubs have put on shows in the past, but their most recent outing was a 19-9 Seattle win with the Cards failing to score a touchdowns.
Now I do expect more from Kyler Murray and the Cards while Geno Smith has delivered beyond belief for Seattle. Can we expect that to continue and for the Seahawks to remain in first place? I don’t know the answer, but both clubs are deep enough defensively to make the other put in some extra work. Sometimes a number just doesn’t look right and the total is too darn high.
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