Week 6 was a good one on my NFL top total plays sweeping the games to move into positive territory for the first time this season. It’s taken six weeks but I’m finally in the black thanks to 7-2 run over the past three weeks. Eight of the 14 games around the NFL in Week 6 cashed the UNDER moving the season percentage to 59, and there has yet to be a week where more games exceeded the point total.
Like last week I took that information into account and hit two UNDERS. Betting on a game with the Broncos to finish below the total has been a money maker. The Russell Wilson experiment has been a failure so far with the club averaging a NFL worst 15.2 points. They’ve scored 16 points or less in five of six games with the UNDER 5-1. They scored exactly 16 points for the third time in their OT loss to the Chargers. A struggling Tampa Bay offense and a rookie starting QB for the Steelers had me throwing down on the under in that matchup. And I wasn’t disappointed. Pittsburgh thwarted a late 2-point PAT try and held on for the 20-18 win. The total was 44.
Bucking trends can sometimes work in your favor. I hit the OVER in the Cincinnati-New Orleans matchup with the teams combining for 56 points to easily surpass the total. The Bengals scored a season-high displaying some of the big play capability that carried them to the Super Bowl last season. The biggest was a 60-yard scoring pass from Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase with less than two minutes to play giving Cincy the 30-26 victory and their first win on the OVER this season. Let’s take a look at the Week 7 NFL schedule to see what top total plays will help improve my 10-8 record.
NFL Week 7 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 7
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: UNDER 42
New York’s 5-1 start isn’t a product of an offensive juggernaut. The Giants scored at least 20 points in three straight games and four times overall this season, but they still rank 18th in the NFL averaging 21.2 points. The group has benefitted from a healthy Saquon Barkley, who ranks second in the NFL in rushing and the team averages 163 rushing yards to place fourth. The Jags favor the run as well leaving both teams with a glorious chance of burning time off the clock.
While both teams rank in the bottom half in scoring, they’ve been solid defensively allowing fewer than 20 points per game. And the last time we saw the Jags play at home they managed just two field goals in a 13-6 setback to Houston. The teams could surprise, but the best bet is on the defense to limit points.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: OVER 45.5
Whenever Lamar Jackson takes the field you expect fireworks and for the Ravens to score. That hasn’t been the case lately with Baltimore tallying 20 points or less in three straight losses. What hurt them during that stretch were late game meltdowns that included turnovers from Jackson. It’s an unexpected occurrence, but one that can be corrected. And holding on to the football increases their chances of scoring since, you know, they have the ball.
Thanks to their tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running the football the Browns lead the NFL averaging 172 rushing yards. Jacoby Brissett has been an able fill in at QB and Cleveland scores nearly 25 points a game. The defenses, especially Baltimore’s, haven’t been nearly as good as we’ve seen in the past. With Baltimore looking to snap out of its funk I expect Jackson to have a big game, like he’s done so many times in the past.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Pick: UNDER 45.5
The expected return of Tua Tagovailoa should ignite Miami’s offense, but you wonder if he plays how effective he’s going to be after getting knocked unconscious a few games ago. There’s no denying Tua is the key. After the first three weeks he led the league in passing yards and the Dolphins averaged nearly 28 points. They haven’t scored more than 17 in any of the last three games.
The Steelers may have to turn to Mitchell Trubisky for this game with Kenny Pickett concussed last week. While he played well coming off the bench throwing a TD pass that turned out to the game-winner, he’s still Mitchell Trubisky.
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