Last week I mentioned I was officially on a heater with my NFL teaser picks after hitting a three-teamer for the second straight week. Well, we can upgrade that to a major heater after hitting all three in Week 6. And as it turned out teasing the lines was exactly what got me the winning ticket. Three consecutive winning weeks puts us in a good spot moving forward, but as we know the house doesn’t like to lose. And things have a way of evening out over the long haul.
Teasing the line was beneficial in the AFC South clash between Jacksonville and Indianapolis and in the NFC East tilt with Dallas and Philadelphia. Those games were classic examples of how a teaser works. Let me break it down. The Jags were +2 on the line with the six points moving them to +8. They actually led the game late in the fourth quarter before the Colts scored and converted the 2-point PAT for the 34-27 final. Moving across the key number 7 got me a victory.
There was a similar situation in the Sunday night game with a fourth quarter Eagles touchdown supplying the final points in their 26-17 win. Teasing the opening line 6-points to Dallas +12 kept them within the spread giving us another winner. Both picks would’ve lost on the original line, which is why we buy the points. We didn’t need assistance in the Jets-Packers game since New York won outright 27-10. Like many I didn’t see that coming but expected a competitive game. Backing the Jets at +13 on the teased line was just icing on the cake. It’s off to Week 7 of the NFL schedule to see if we can continue the run on our teaser picks.
NFL Week 7 Betting Lines
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Line: Raiders -7
Teaser Line: Raiders -1
The Raiders have played a lot of close games with their four losses by six points or less and a total of 14 points. They are the best 1-4 team in the league and quite possibly of all time. When you think about it they aren’t that far off from being undefeated. But you are what your record says and the Raiders are desperate. On the plus side their only win came at home fairly convincingly and they should be eager coming off a bye.
Houston was off last week too and should be a confident group after picking up their first win in Week 5 over Jacksonville. The defense put on a good show in that one but overall ranks among the worst units in the NFL allowing over 414 yards per game. I do think the Raiders are a better club, but considering the number of tight games both teams have played dropping the spread is a good move.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Opening Line: Colts +2.5
Teaser Line: Colts +8.5
We’re going to see if the strategy pays off again. The opening line suggests a close game with the Colts a 2-point road dog. The previous three meetings were decided by nine points or less. Last year’s AFC South title was helped by the Titans winning both games, however there was little separation in the games. And the Colts are looking better with wins in two straight and three of four with the offense erupting in last week’s 34-27 win over Jacksonville.
The acquisition of Matt Ryan was expected to get the Colts over the hump after faltering down the stretch last season. Ryan has put together a solid season throwing for nearly 1,800 yards with eight touchdowns and he’s coming off his best performance with 389 passing yards and three scores. Tennessee isn’t the same, which is why I’m backing the Colts on the teased line.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Total: 42
Teaser Total: 48
The teams combine to average a little over 44 points so they’re not scaring anybody on offense. And troubling for the Jags is the regression of Trevor Lawrence. Following a promising start to the season he’s tailed off and points have become scarce. Losing at home to Houston, 13-6, a few weeks ago when laying 7-points was frustrating. There will be growing pains for the former No. 1 overall pick and Lawrence is hurting right now.
The strength of both teams is defense with the QBs able to put together drives, though it’s been inconsistent. Running the football is done successfully by both sides allowing time to burn off the clock further giving the UNDER a better chance of cashing.
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