There’s reason why it’s called gambling and not winning. I think I’ve used that line before but it rings true. Every week the plan is to give bettors some insight on games that can be used in a parlay. My picks are more for informational purposes and I don’t actually play a parlay card with them. As it turns out that’s probably a good thing since once again all my Week 6 picks didn’t pan out. I’m winning over 55 percent of the time, however every pick has to be a winner to get the payout. And unfortunately that hasn’t happened yet.
The easy part of a parlay is picking a favorite. Last week I nailed both my faves backing the Chargers against punchless Denver and taking Minnesota -3.5 against a Miami squad that was down to its third-string quarterback. Serious bettors have to pay attention to recent trends and injury reports to get a better handle on what could possibly happen. Of course it doesn’t always work in your favor, but the odds of winning increase with the more information you have.
The harder part of a winning parlay is picking outright underdogs. It happens quite a bit in the NFL like we saw last week with dogs winning seven of the 14 games. The bigger payout is on the moneyline. Backing Pittsburgh +9.5 in its game with Tampa would have been profitable. The New York teams are showing they’re for real with each winning outright in Week 6. Catching 5.5-points the Giants upset Baltimore 24-20 while the Jets won in green Bay as a 7.5-point dog. We’ll take a deep dive into the Week 7 NFL schedule to see which teams to include on a winning parlay ticket.
NFL Week 7 Betting Lines
Parlay Card Favorites
If you’re looking to maximize your payout while increasing the odds of winning a parlay, betting favorites against the spread costs less. As we know there are no sure things in sports so it won’t always work, but it does help. My favorites paid out on the moneyline last week with the Bolts winning in overtime and the Vikings taking care of business. Minnesota covered the 3.5-point line beating Miami 24-16 while the Chargers fell short on the spread. I’ll look at a couple of Week 7 favorites backing one against the spread and another on the moneyline. Who looks good?
Are the Raiders the best 1-4 team ... ever? It’s hard to argue against that, but the bottom line is that they have only one win. The bye helped them get over the fact that all their losses were by a total of 14 points and I can see them playing with a sense of urgency against Houston on Sunday. Las Vegas is laying 7-points, but the Raiders are better than their record and just a few plays away from being at least above .500. Vegas looks like a strong play against the spread.
After Sunday night’s loss to Philadelphia, it looks like the Cowboys will get Dak Prescott back in time for their matchup with Detroit. After surviving without him the Boys are poised to make a run and they are my moneyline pick in their matchup with the Lions.
Parlay Card Underdogs
Picking a dog to win outright isn’t easy and can crumble your parlay card, so make the right pick. Or don’t, it’s not required to back a dog on the moneyline. But as mentioned it sure helps with the eventual payout. Seven underdogs won outright last week; unfortunately, my picks didn’t include one of them. The Cowboys saw their winning streak end in a loss to the Eagles. And backing KC was another loser after the Chiefs were outplayed by Buffalo in a playoff rematch.
I’m doing it this week. That’s right I’m jumping on the Giants bandwagon. Oddsmakers aren’t swayed by the 5-1 record positioning the G-Men as a 3-point road dog against Jacksonville. The Giants are finding ways to win and that’s all that matters. Following wins over Green Bay and Baltimore there is the chance of a letdown, but I don’t think that happens in a game they view as winnable.
Geno Smith is making the most of his opportunity and the Seahawks look a helluva lot better than I and most everyone thought they would be. Smith is completing better than 73 percent of his passes with 10 TDs and Seattle enters the week tied for the NFC West lead. They are getting 6-points for their date with the Chargers and there’s a good chance Seattle’s offense does enough against a leaky Bolts D.
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