Tweaking the spread or total in your favor makes things easier when it comes to wagering. And I’ve been good with the NFL teaser picks this season. However, my heater ran into the bomb cyclone last week, and like much of the country I lost. I came close to hitting another three-team winner but it just wasn’t meant to be. Still, eight winners in the past 12 weeks isn’t shabby. The thing about teasers is that you have to win a higher percentage of the time since the payout isn’t as hefty as say a parlay or straight up bets. The house wants you to win by allowing spread and total manipulation, but it comes at a cost. With two weeks left in the NFL regular season I’ll try and finish off on a nice run to make the offseason more bearable.
The excitement of looking forward to a winning ticket ended quickly on Saturday with the Bears getting mauled by Buffalo. Even teasing the line to Chicago +15 didn’t help with an explosive Bills second half outscoring Chicago 29-3. Things were looking good into the fourth quarter when a field goal cut Chicago’s deficit to 21-13. The Bills increased their lead to 28-13 with just under four minutes to play and I would’ve happily taken a push at that point. But the Bears turned it over on downs and Josh Allen tossed a fourth-down touchdown pass for the 35-13 final.
At the same time I was hitting a winner in the Lions/Panthers game. Teasing the original total to 38 to back the OVER worked, though the teams played above the opening number. Detroit was horrible defending the run giving up an average of 7.4 yards on 43 Carolina rush attempts, and the Panthers nearly hit the teased total by themselves in the 37-23 victory. And I just don’t have much confidence in Tampa Bay at this point, which is why I backed the Cardinals catching 8-points in their matchup. Tampa overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to win 19-16 in overtime falling to a NFL worst 3-11-1 ATS.
Let’s move to the Week 17 teaser picks.
NFL Week 17 Betting Lines
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Opening Total: 36
Teaser Total: 42
The AFC North rivals have played a similar brand of football over the last few weeks. One that involves great defense and little offense, so backing the UNDER on a teased total of 42 appears to be a good wager. We probably won’t see Lamar Jackson with the Ravens clinching a playoff spot on Saturday, and they’ve struggled to score with Tyler Huntley at the controls. They scored a total of three touchdowns in the last four games.
The Steelers have issues scoring as well, which has been a season-long problem. They average just 17.6 points to rank 29th in the NFL. If you want to talk about defense this is the place. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its last five games while the Ravens have allowed an average of 12.7 points in their last seven contests. Baltimore trudged out a 16-14 win in Week 14 with the teams cashing the UNDER for a fourth straight time.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Opening Line: Chiefs -13.5
Teaser Line: Chiefs -7.5
The Broncos have been so bad taking the Chiefs on the original line looks like a good play. KC’s win in Week 14 was their 14th straight in the series, though they coughed up a big lead in the second half and failed to cover the 8.5-point line. The run will end sometime, but not on Sunday.
Wacky stuff has happened this season but I don’t see the Chiefs losing this game. The original spread is up there and KC is 2-2 ATS when laying double-digits. Bringing that number down to just over a touchdown is a smart teaser move.
San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Line: Raiders +10
Teaser Line: Raiders +16
A look at the records and you can see why the Niners are a heavy favorite. But a deeper dive shows the teams are closely matched. A few breaks along the way and Vegas would be in a much better situation. All but one of the Raiders nine losses were by a single score and four of them were by a field goal or less. They’ve played a number of close games only to come out on the wrong side.
With their playoff hopes slim to none at this point all the Raiders can do is win out and hope for the best. They had been playing well with four wins in five games before last week’s 13-10 loss in Pittsburgh. Frigid temperatures may have played a role in Derek Carr throwing three picks. The conditions will be better and the Raiders average 28.3 points going 4-2 SU and ATS at Allegiant Stadium. They may not win but it should be close making the teased line enticing.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
Check out the latest odds at BookMaker
