It’s been an ongoing theme throughout the season. I’d hit a few winners on my four-team NFL parlay picks but have yet to cash a winning ticket by nailing all of them in the same week. And guess what? It happened again in Week 16. You can do all the research, study the stats, evaluate the injury reports and check the weather outlets and you’ll still end up getting bit by the unpredictable nature of the league. With only two weeks remaining in the regular season time is running out to hit that winner but I’ll do my best in Week 17.
I either overvalued the team formerly known as the Redskins or undervalued Brock Purdy and the Niners. I mentioned last week that I was second guessing my moneyline pick of the underdog Commanders and I guess I should’ve listened because the Niners rolled 37-20. The game was actually close late in the third quarter when the Commandos crept within 21-14, but the Niners pulled away with the help of two fourth-quarter Washington turnovers. I also jumped on the Lions bandwagon too late backing them as a 3-point favorite against Carolina. Detroit’s defense isn’t good and the Lions were especially poor against the run allowing 320 yards and three TDs. The Panthers racked up 570 total yards and led 31-7 at one point.
Though the end result was the same as every other week, the blow was softened by a couple of winning picks. Tom Brady is looking like a 40-something quarterback and the Bucs are a sketchy pick. They were laying 8-points and I snatched the Cardinals even though they were down to their third QB. Trace McSorley wasn’t bad getting the Cards to a 10-point fourth quarter lead, but he turned the ball over twice, the last leading to Tampa’s game-tying field goal. The Bucs then got the OT field goal and a 19-16 win. Tampa is a NFL worst 3-11-1 ATS. Lastly I bet the UNDER in the Chargers/Colts game and the teams obliged. Nick Foles is wishing he was still riding the pine after getting sacked seven times and tossing three picks. The Colts never reached the end zone in the 20-3 setback.
Let’s move to the Week 17 parlay picks.
NFL Week 17 Betting Lines
Las Vegas Raiders +10
Steelers/Ravens U36
New England Patriots -3
Kansas City Chiefs -13.5
They haven’t been officially eliminated from playoff contention but the Raiders are on life support and the Niners are reaching for the plug. One thing that struck me about this game is the spread climbing to Vegas +10. Sure the Niners are on a roll having won eight straight with the best defense in the league. However, the Raiders have played a number of close games with eight of their nine defeats by seven points or less and four of those by a field goal or less. They might lose, but they tend to keep games close with an offense that can produce as long as Derek Carr doesn’t turn the ball over, like he did with three picks in last week’s 13-10 loss to Pittsburgh.
Speaking of close games the Steelers and Ravens have played a number of them over the years. And they are usually old school, grinder type of games. Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a lot of points with the total at 36 and I’m gambling that the offensively-challenged teams comply. Pittsburgh held its last five opponents to 17 points or less and the Ravens allowed 14 points or less in six of their last seven games. Baltimore eked out a 16-14 win in Week 14 and the teams played below the total in four straight hookups with only one team hitting the 20-point mark in that span.
Following a hot start the Dolphins have faded down the stretch losing four in a row and could be without Tua Tagovailoa after the QB entered concussion protocol again this week. The Pats haven’t been much better giving games away the last two weeks and dropping four of their last five, but playing at home with a big edge over the Fins in cold weather makes me want to back the home team.
I typically stay away from double-digit favorites but when the stars align the right pick is out there. For the fifth time this season the Chiefs are laying at least 10 points having covered the spread in two of the previous four such games. They beat Seattle 24-10 as a 10.5-point favorite just last week. And the Broncos are a mess relieving Nathaniel Hackett of his duties after the Broncos were stomped 51-14 by the Rams on Christmas Day looking like the offseason was already in full swing.
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