University of Washington speedster John Ross was chosen No. 9 overall in the draft by the Cincinnati Bengals. Western Michigan small-school standout Corey Davis went No. 5 overall to the Tennessee Titans. Zay Jones of East Carolina didn’t go until the second round, but has landed in a favorable situation with the Buffalo Bills.
Rookies pick up the NFL game at different paces, and their first season is not always indicative of their career arc. However, for the purposes of this prop bet, only the performance this season will matter, and bettors must determine who will have the quickest impact.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Rookie with most receiving yards during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Zay Jones -140
Corey Davis +170
John Ross +260
Odds Analysis
Despite being the lowest selection of the three, Jones comes in as the favorite to lead them in receiving yards. It’s not a great value, as he must outperform a pair of highly-selected talents, and if he does, it only pays off at -160.
Davis is a small underdog but could certainly lead the three receivers in yardage. His odds of +170 seem fair for a player who may not make a huge impact immediately but could start making some noise as the season moves along.
Ross has the longest odds to lead these receivers in yardage. He set the NFL Scouting combine record by running a blazing 40-yard dash and has big-play potential, but it remains to be seen if he can consistently become a part of the game plan.
Why Jones Will Lead The Rookie Receivers In Yardage
Jones dominated the small-school ranks, and played four years of college ball, which should help him be prepared for this opportunity. He heads to Buffalo, which has the talented Sammy Watkins as the top wide receiver but not a bunch of depth behind him.
Jones could certainly figure into the rotation right away, and if the injury-prone Watkins goes down, it would lead to even more targets. Jones had 158 catches for 1,746 yards and eight touchdowns in his final college season. He might not have as much upside as the other two wide receivers, but the ability to become an immediate standout is there.
Why Davis Will Lead The Rookie Receivers In Yardage
Like Jones, Davis comes from a small school where he dominated the competition. The big-bodied wideout should also slide into the rotation immediately with Tennessee.
The downside to his situation is the team’s reliance on the running game. No Titans receiver had more than 945 receiving yards last season, and while Marcus Mariota is a solid quarterback, if Davis doesn’t get a lot of targets he can’t do much with them,
An ankle injury from last season also damages Davis’ chances in case he gets off to a slow start, but there is no denying the talent is there. First-round rookies have made immediate impacts in recent seasons, as players like Watkins, Odell Beckham, Jr. and Mike Evans became stars early.
If Davis can put up some big games early, Mariota will begin to trust him and get him the ball.
Why Ross Will Lead The Rookie Receivers In Yardage
Ross had 1,150 yards receiving as a senior with the Huskies in his breakout campaign. His yards per catch weren’t off the charts, but speed kills, and if he can break a couple of long touchdown receptions he could be right in this mix.
The Bengals have A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert who are impressive downfield threats, which will limit Ross’ opportunities. They also could choose to deploy him on run plays to use his speed.
It’s understandable why Ross has the longest odds. However, if he can turn a simple bubble screen into an 80-yard touchdown, that will change the complexion of this wager. Ross seems unlikely to get as many targets as Jones or Davis this season, so he must make the most of the ones he is given.
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