NFL Player Props – Philip Rivers Passing Yards and Touchdowns

By  Jonathan Willis

Wednesday, August 14th, 2019

NFL Player Props – Philip Rivers Passing Yards and Touchdowns

After Drew Brees fell eight yards short of 4,000 passing yards last season, his old teammate took over his streak of longest consecutive seasons with at least 4,000 yards. Philip Rivers has now thrown for 4,000 yards or more in 11 straight seasons, and he has been the model of consistency during his 15-year NFL career. He led the Chargers to a 12-4 record and a playoff victory last season, and Rivers is out to have another big year in 2019.

Philip Rivers 2019 Passing Yards

Over 4300.5 +120
Under 4300.5 -150

Philip Rivers 2019 Touchdown Passes

Over 30.5 +120
Under 30.5 -150

Odds Analysis

Although the Chargers have waxed and waned during Rivers’ long career, he has been the league’s most durable and consistent quarterback over the last 13 years. Rivers’ active streak of 219 consecutive starts (including playoffs) is 53 more than the next closest quarterback, and he is set to have the second-longest streak in NFL history by early November. He’ll still have a long way to go to catch Brett Favre, but that shows the reliability of Rivers over his career.

Rivers’ 2018 season was his best since at least 2013 when taking everything into consideration. His yards per attempt had been under 8 from 2014 to 2017, but that number shot up to 8.5 yards per attempt last campaign. It was the second-most accurate season of his career too, as Rivers completed 68.3 percent of his passes.

Offensive Scheme

Ken Whisenhunt is known for creating systems in which quarterbacks flourish, and that has been the case since he came to the Chargers. Rivers has rejuvenated his career once more, as Keenan Allen has remained healthy and emerged into a WR1.

Allen suffered through injury plagued campaigns in 2015 and 2016, but he has been a Pro Bowl player in each of his last two seasons. That has helped Rivers and the Chargers turn things around.

Mike Williams is likely to be the No. 2 receiver, but the bigger target should be Hunter Henry. The young tight end missed all of last season after going down with a torn ACL in OTAs, and he could put up big numbers this year. Rivers loves to throw to tight ends, as we saw during Antonio Gates’ incredible career, and Henry should see a lot of targets.

Injury Risk

As discussed, Rivers is the league’s most durable quarterback, but he is getting older. He will turn 38 in early December, so that is something to keep in the back of your head.

The Play

This is a tough call. Rivers is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and two of the other three defenses in the AFC West are a mess. Oakland and Kansas City will likely see their secondaries lit up this season.

There are reasons to doubt Rivers will hit his over too. While he has been durable, Allen has not been durable during his career, and Henry has to be considered at least a bit of a question mark after a major knee injury.

Additionally, the Chargers might not have their best running back. Melvin Gordon is in the middle of a protracted holdout that does not seem likely to end anytime soon, and if he doesn’t play, the Chargers will go into the season with Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler. Neither player is as good of a runner as Gordon, which will hurt play action and lead to defenses putting more players in coverage.

I don’t feel particularly strongly about it, but I feel that under is the slightly better play here in terms of both yards and touchdowns. The juice has shifted already though, so I won’t play this unless the line moves back to more even odds.

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