Last year’s NFL draft was loaded with high-end quarterback talent evidenced by five of the first 15 picks coming from the position. An area of weakness in the draft class came up front on the edges of the defensive line. It took until pick No. 12 for an edge rusher to get selected. It was none other than Micah Parsons who would go on to rejuvenate the Dallas Cowboys defense and win some hardware along the way. The same can’t and won’t be said about this year’s draft class with it loaded with edge rushing talent set to make an immediate impact for their respective teams. Current mock drafts have Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson and Georgia’s Travon Walker potentially going off the board through the first two rounds of NFL Draft betting at online sportsbooks. But what about Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux? The maligned Ducks’ stud pass rusher has become nothing more than an afterthought when digging into his draft odds at the open until now. I’m here to beat the drum for this uber-talent. His draft position odds have soared to 5.5 and I’m here to tell you it’s much too high. Don’t let the heavy chalk on the under turn you away! This kids going to be drafted within the first five picks and this is why.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kayvon Thibodeaux Draft Position
Over 5.5 +128
Under 5.5 -162
Personally, I’m far from impressed with the quarterback talent in this draft. While there are a number of teams that will be looking to improve their roster at the position, I’m selling the idea of taking early fliers on field generals like Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral. I’m thinking teams can trade down to target those players later in the draft. I’d truly be shocked if one was off the board halfway through the draft. As such, it opens the doors for the meat and potato positions to get selected early and often. This draft should see all teams with early picks loading up on defensive linemen, offensive linemen, and secondary help. This draft is bursting with talent at those respective positions, and Kayvon Thibodeaux is a specimen unlike many others in this draft class.
I’m firmly aware his production in Eugene tailed off from his freshman year in 2019, but that was to be expected with COVID and the injury bug wreaking havoc the last two seasons. Still, Thibodeaux proved to be an athletic freak in 2021 by tallying 49 total tackles – 12 for loss – and seven QB sacks. His overall showing in Eugene amounted to 126 tackles, 35.5 tackles for loss, and 19 overall sacks. Mind you, those stats were accrued in just 32 total games. For comparison’s sake, Hutchinson only went for 156 tackles, 27.5 tackles for loss, and 17.5 sacks in 39 games. A case can be made that Thibodeaux still deserves to be the odds on favorite to be selected first in 2022 NFL Draft betting when simply going by the stat outputs of both respective edges.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (32), Detroit Lions (30), and Houston Texans (32) all finished in the bottom third of the league at sacking the quarterback. They’re all desperately in need of a difference maker up front. As such, it comes with little surprise to see all three teams going with an edge rusher with their top pick in most recent mock drafts at Pro Football Focus amongst other websites with the draft now less than two weeks away. The order simply doesn’t matter, so long as each of these three freak specimens are selected through the first five picks.
No joke, the juice on the under of Thibodeaux’s draft position prop fattened up to -162 from -143 as I was writing this article. Others out there look to hold the same belief that I do in that Thibodeaux is receiving unsubstantiated negativity since first opening as the odds on favorite to be selected No. 1 in this draft. His pass-rush grades were excellent at PFF, and his pass-rush win rate nearly doubled Travon Walker’s. While the latter played against much stiffer SEC opposition, it’s still something that mustn’t be ignored. Thibodeaux is an athletic freak that will fit flawlessly into the defensive makeups of the Jaguars, Lions, or Texans. Personally, I think Lovie Smith is salivating over the prospect of potentially landing his services and immediately inserting him into a punchless Houston pass rush of a season ago.
Should any team not take a stab with Thibodeaux through the first five picks, they’ll rue the day they decided not to the remainder of what’s likely to be a standout, hardware-heavy career!
NFL Draft Wager: Under 5.5
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