Deshaun Watson Props – Passing Yards and Touchdowns

Deshaun Watson Props – Passing Yards and Touchdowns

The Houston Texans have been the team to beat in the AFC South going on the last four seasons. Last year’s title made it three titles in four tries for Bill O’Brien’s troops, but they enter 2019-20 looking up to the Indianapolis Colts on the divisional futures odds at online sportsbooks. The overall success hasn’t translated too much when it counts the most with the Texans getting as far as the divisional round of the playoffs back in 2016. Now entering the third season of his professional career, the Texans need Deshaun Watson to start separating himself as one of the best in the business. In order to do that, he needs to remain as healthy as possible. That hasn’t been the case through his first two seasons after suffering a knee injury in his stellar rookie campaign, and then suffering through a lingering chest injury for a bulk of last year. Upper management went out and bolstered the offensive line in the offseason by way of the draft. If the moves pay off, Watson could end up being one of the premiere quarterbacks in the league with a loaded receiving corps surrounding him.

Total Passing Yards: 4000.5
Total Passing TD: 26.5

DeAndre Hopkins is arguably the best wide receiver in the game. Playing injured for a bulk of last season, he still went on to reel in 115 catches for 1,572 yards and an average of 13.7 yards per catch. Only Julio Jones tallied more receiving yards! On top of that, he snagged 11 TD catches. Having a player like that at his disposal will only make life that much easier for Watson. But it doesn’t stop there! Will Fuller has proven to be a big play pass catcher over the course of his brief career. He’s averaged 510 yards and 4.3 touchdown catches in a total of just 31 games. He hasn’t been able to stay off the IR the last few seasons, but if he does in 2019-20, look out! Keke Coutee rounds out the trio, but the second-year wide receiver also needs to figure out how to stay healthy after competing in just six total games last season. The acquisition of Duke Johnson from Cleveland also gives Watson an explosive target to get the pigskin to out of the backfield with Lamar Miller cut from a more traditional running back cloth.

Season Outlook

The betting markets look to be of firm belief that the Texans run atop the AFC South standings has come to a close with the way the Indianapolis Colts handled them last season. In taking two of the three meetings which included getting dominated at home in the postseason, Houston is playing second fiddle to Andrew Luck and company on the divisional futures odds. That could all change however should Luck’s bone issue that recently cropped up be more than just a blip on the radar. Even so, the Texans are a longshot to win Super Bowl LIV with it now 40-1 after initially hitting the board at 34-1. The chips certainly look stacked against the Texans making much impactful noise this season regardless of whether Watson goes off or not.

Houston Texans Football Schedule

Week 1: Texans at Saints
Week 2: Jaguars at Texans
Week 3: Texans at Chargers
Week 4: Panthers at Texans
Week 5: Falcons at Texans
Week 6: Texans at Chiefs
Week 7: Texans at Colts
Week 8: Raiders at Texans
Week 9: Texans at Jaguars
Week 10: Bye Week
Week 11: Texans at Ravens
Week 12: Colts at Texans
Week 13: Patriots at Texans
Week 14: Broncos at Texans
Week 15: Texans at Titans
Week 16: Texans at Buccaneers
Week 17: Titans at Texans

Schedule Breakdown

In terms of schedule strength for quarterbacks, Watson’s is considered to be middle of the road according to last year’s defensive stats. That said, he could get out to a tremendous start of the season with four of the league’s worst pass defenses lined up in the first six games. We’ll know right from the get go just how much more potent Houston’s pass attack will be in Week 1 when it squares off against the Saints questionable secondary. After taking on the stout units of the Jaguars and Chargers the next two weeks, things dramatically lighten up with the Panthers, Falcons and Chiefs on the docket. Things get much tougher following the team’s Week 10 bye, but at least the Texans get the benefit of playing four of their final seven games in the comforts of NRG Stadium. While not the most attractive schedule on paper, you never know how things will change from year-to-year. Having a player the caliber of “Nuk” at his disposal will make it that much easier for Watson to possibly have his greatest campaign at the NFL level; provided he avoids the injury bug.

The Bets

Watson has hovered around this year’s passing yardage prop at top rated sportsbook through the first two seasons of his professional career. If you extrapolate the output from his rookie season that was cut short due to injury, he would’ve thrown for around 3,900 yards. He then followed it up with 4,165 yards a season ago. Average those two seasons out, and he would’ve just barely cashed over tickets when utilizing the number to beat for this season. The talent currently surrounding him is at an all-time high. Pair that with an average schedule strength, and you got what I believe to be the perfect recipe for Watson to churn out his best season slinging the pigskin around at the NFL level.

All of it will go for naught if either he or his pass catching corps can’t stay healthy. That’s been the team’s bugaboo for a number of years now; it’s time for the franchise to experience some positive regression in that regard. Wouldn’t you say? While I don’t think the Texans have it in them to topple the Colts atop the division standings, it doesn’t mean Houston won’t go down swinging. Provided the additions to the offensive line pan out and all the pertinent contributors remain relatively injury free, there’s no reason to believe Watson won’t be able to live up to expectations and surpass both his passing yardage and touchdown props come the end of the regular season.

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