The GOAT is looking to make even more history after breaking his own record as the oldest quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yards. Tom Brady led the NFL with 4,577 passing yards when he was 40 years old in 2017, posting the best numbers we have seen from a quarterback that age. Brady shattered that mark in 2021 though, throwing for 5,316 yards with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the age of 44. He has led the NFL in passing four times in his career, and he is one of just three active quarterbacks to lead the league in passing.
2022 NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds
Justin Herbert +600
Matthew Stafford +750
Patrick Mahomes +800
Tom Brady +800
Derek Carr +1000
Dak Prescott +1000
Joe Burrow +1000
Josh Allen +1250
Aaron Rodgers +1250
All Other Players +1500 or More
Justin Herbert is the favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards. Herbert has been brilliant over his two seasons in the league, throwing for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie, and he was even better in his second season. The Oregon product threw for over 5,000 yards with 38 touchdowns in 2021. Herbert has two excellent receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and he has a coach that isn’t afraid to air it out and take chances in Brandon Staley. The Los Angeles Chargers play in the toughest division in the NFL too, and there might be plenty of shootouts with the quarterbacks in the AFC West.
Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford has yet to lead the NFL in passing yards. Stafford is five yards shy of 50,000 career passing yards, and he has thrown for 4,000 yards or more nine times in his career. He has the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year to throw the ball to in Cooper Kupp, and there is hope that Odell Beckham Jr. will return to the Los Angeles Rams too. The team added underrated Allen Robinson II in the offseason, but Sean McVay wants to run the ball more than he has the past two seasons.
Surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes has yet to lead the NFL in passing yards. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the game today, and he has thrown for at least 4,700 yards in three of his four seasons as the starting QB in Kansas City. He was a little more interception prone than usual last year though, and the loss of Tyreek Hill is certainly going to hurt this offense’s explosiveness. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were signed as free agents and Skyy Moore was selected in the second round to give Mahomes new weapons, but there are some concerns here.
While Tom Brady is clearly the GOAT, his time as an elite starter has to be coming to an end soon. Brady is still playing at a high level in his mid-40s, doing something we have never seen anyone do before. He has two of the best receivers in the NFL in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski seems likely to come back for another year too. However, Bruce Arians is gone, and Father Time is going to start catching up to Brady.
The love for Derek Carr this offseason continues to be a little too much. Carr is an above average quarterback, but some are treating him like one of the NFL’s elite passers. He has a standout receiver in Davante Adams after a blockbuster trade this offseason, and Hunter Renfrow is a solid underneath receiver. However, Carr has only thrown for over 4,200 yards once in his career, so it’s hard to imagine him suddenly improving dramatically in his 30s.
One of the most popular picks to lead the NFL in passing yards will be Dak Prescott. Dallas clearly has a franchise quarterback in Prescott, but he no longer has Amari Cooper. Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb are solid receivers, yet there is a real question regarding how much Dallas will be throwing the ball. The Cowboys have a great one-two punch at running back and play in a division where they won’t need to score many points.
2022 NFL Passing Yards Leader Pick: Justin Herbert
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