Week 9 Fade the Public Plays

By  Jonathan Willis

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018

Week 9 Fade the Public Plays

The public keeps on winning…at least if they are backing the plays that I am fading. That’s due to change sooner rather than later as we enter the meat of the college football season though. Last week’s plays went 1-2 ATS, but they had a real shot of going 3-0. Arizona State played dead even with Stanford for most of their game during the week, while East Carolina outgained Central Florida but five turnovers doomed the Pirates in a 27-point loss. This week, it’s time for some of that luck to go my way.

Georgia Southern +8.5 vs. Appalachian State

Appalachian State has been fantastic this year. The Mountaineers nearly knocked off Penn State in Happy Valley in their opener, and they blew out their next four opponents to be ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history. They had a bit of a hard time against Louisiana Lafayette last week, but the college football world is starting to believe in Appalachian State.

This is a tough spot for the Mountaineers though, and the sharps know it. Appalachian State opened as an 11-point favorite against Georgia Southern per the CFB betting odds, but the line has come down 2.5 points even though more than 70 percent of bettors are on the ranked Mountaineers.

Sharps have jumped on Georgia Southern for a few reasons. The Eagles are 6-1, and their only loss this season was to No. 2 Clemson. Additionally, this game is in Statesboro, a place that might just be the second toughest stadium to play in in the Sun Belt.

The biggest reason to jump on Georgia Southern is because of the offense they run. The Eagles run the triple option under Chad Lunsford, and it is notoriously difficult to defend on a short week. Appalachian State has yet to face a triple option team this year, and the defense is unlikely to be fully prepared to stop it.

Vanderbilt -2.5 at Arkansas

This game has already had one of the biggest line moves of the week. The Commodores opened as a 2.5-point underdog per the NCAAF betting odds released on Sunday, yet they are now a 2.5-point favorite even though more than 60 percent of the action has been on the Razorbacks. That five-point swing includes no key numbers, but that’s some big line movement.

Vanderbilt has yet to win an SEC game yet this season, but the Commodores have played three ranked teams very tough. They only lost by five points on the road against Notre Dame, took a double-digit lead into halftime against Florida, and held their own with Kentucky until the very end.

Meanwhile, Arkansas’ best game of the season was probably a seven-point loss to Texas A&M. The Razorbacks did hold Tulsa scoreless last week, but the Golden Hurricane have one of the worst offenses in the country.

Arkansas still hasn’t figured out its quarterback situation, and to make matters worse the Razorbacks have been decimated by injuries. Multiple starters along the offensive line are hurt, and the stable of running backs are hurting too. I expect Vanderbilt to limit this offense to less than 20 points in a win.

Florida +7 vs. Georgia

Dan Mullen certainly appears to have Florida ahead of schedule in his first season in Gainesville. The Gators are ranked just outside the Top 10 in the AP poll, and they have a legitimate shot at winning the SEC East if they can get a win over Georgia in this one.

Most of the public is still high on Georgia coming into this game. They are remembering how dominant Georgia looked last year though, and they have been ignoring some of the troubling signs this year. The Bulldogs have not been great on defense this season, and the passing game has had some problems getting pressure off the running game.

Grab Florida while you can still get the full touchdown in this one. Sharps are already hitting the Gators this week, and the CFB betting line could go under 7 before kickoff.

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