Week 11 NCAAF Spreads – Mississippi State at Alabama Picks Online

By  Jonathan Willis

Monday, November 5th, 2018

Week 11 NCAAF Spreads

What do you even do with Alabama at this point? If you’re an oddsmaker, it doesn’t seen like you can set the college football betting line high enough to keep bettors from backing the Crimson Tide at this point. Alabama was a monumental 14.5-point favorite on the road against No. 4 LSU last week and had no problem covering the NCAAF betting line. The Crimson Tide nearly tripled up the Tigers in terms of total yards and doubled the spread with a 29-0 victory in Baton Rouge.

That has oddsmakers shaking their heads and raising the odds even higher for Alabama’s home tilt with the Mississippi State Bulldogs this week. Even though the Bulldogs are 6-3, Alabama comes into this game as a massive 26-point favorite as sportsbooks are daring bettors to lay the heavy chalk in order to keep betting the Tide.

This contest in Week 11 will take place on Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu

Mississippi State +26
Alabama -26
Total Check Back Later

Odds Analysis

Incredibly enough, the oddsmakers didn’t open the CFB betting line high enough in this one initially. The Crimson Tide were initially 24-point favorites per the NCAAF odds, but that has since gone up to 26. The total for this game will be released on Monday afternoon.

Matchup to Watch

It looked like Nick Fitzgerald would continue to be one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country under new head coach Joe Moorhead through the first month of the season. Fitzgerald had established himself as a very good dual-threat quarterback in Dan Mullen’s system the previous two seasons, and it seemed like Moorhead might be able to push him to even greater heights.

However, Fitzgerald had awful back-to-back games against Kentucky and Florida, and the Bulldogs could only muster a combined 13 points in those meetings. His inadequacies as a passer were exposed by those two defenses, and that left him unable to use his legs as he normally does. Fitzgerald has never been a great passer, and the strategy with him has always been to make him good enough through the air so that he could gash defenses in the run game.

Fitzgerald posted efficiency ratings under 100 in four straight games, but he has improved the last two weeks. He was able to achieve the balance that made Mississippi State’s offense so dangerous in wins over Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech.

It’s going to be very tough to find any kind of success against Alabama’s defense though. The Crimson Tide have been incredible on defense this season, and this may be the best unit they have had in the Nick Saban era. Alabama may not be the best defense statistically, but there are very few people that would argue this isn’t the top defense in the country. The majority of the points and yards they have allowed have come with the game well in hand.

Player to Watch

You can go ahead and engrave Tagovailoa’s name on the Heisman Trophy at this point. Tagovailoa was a -300 favorite to win college football’s top individual honor coming into the LSU game, and his performance in the rout cemented his status as the best player in the country. His numbers are absolutely bonkers, and he has only played for a little over a half in most of his games. He finally saw the field in the fourth quarter against LSU, and although he threw his first interception of the year against the Tigers, it was a minor hiccup.

Tagovailoa might already be the best quarterback Saban has had in over a decade at Alabama. His dual-threat ability makes him perfect for today’s game, and he has yet to face a real challenge. It’s hard to see Mississippi State providing much of one.

Live Betting Preview

Considering how dominant Alabama has been, the best thing to do with live betting this game is to hold off for a little bit. The M.O. for the Crimson Tide has been to race out to a big first half lead, and then keep it relatively even in the second half as they put in reserves and take their foot off the gas pedal. That should give you a chance to grab the Bulldogs at an even higher number.

College Football Odds: Alabama 48, Mississippi State 17

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