I continue to be done in bad luck on my total plays this season. In Week 9, I was on the right side of things for a change. I got a couple uncharacteristic lucky bounces en route to a 3-0 week, and things seemed to be looking up. Unfortunately, my fortune reverted to course with an 0-3 finish and two bad beats last week.
The under in Clemson-Louisville was just a bad call. You can’t say anything else about that. I never had a chance in that one as the team’s went over the total by more than five touchdowns. However, I have reason to be upset with the endings of Auburn-Texas A&M and South Florida-Tulane. In the former, Texas A&M inexplicably took its foot off the gas pedal and played lackadaisical defense in the fourth quarter, and Auburn responded by scoring two touchdowns in the span of three-and-a-half minutes to top the Aggies.
In the latter, I was in a good spot at halftime, but South Florida’s offense never got it together. The Bulls continued to turn the ball over throughout the game, and that led to the Bulls scoring just 15 points despite picking up 10 more first downs than the Green Wave on the afternoon.
Alright, no more bellyaching. On to my Week 11 Total Plays.
College Football Betting Odds from BookMaker.eu
UCF vs. Navy Over 63
I’ve been burned by the Knights a couple times this season, but I’m going to give them one more chance here. UCF has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and they should not have trouble scoring points against a Navy defense that has been one of the school’s worst in the Ken Niumatalolo era. The Midshipmen are ranked in the bottom ten in defense per S&P+, and they seem to have given up, allowing more than 40 points in each of their last three games.
Navy has struggled to get things going with its triple option attack, but I believe the Midshipmen will have some success against UCF’s defense. The Knights take a lot of chances on defense, and sometimes that comes back to bite them like it nearly did against Temple last week. The Owls racked up a school record for total yards in a game, and I believe Navy will be able to get into the end zone three times. If they do that, I feel confident about the over cashing.
Texas Tech vs. Texas Over 63.5
The total is a little deflated in this game because Alan Bowman has already been ruled out. Texas Tech’s freshman quarterback has been a treat this season, but he suffered a collapsed lung against West Virginia last month, and it seems like the same lung ended up collapsing again in the Oklahoma game last week.
Hopefully Bowman can make a quick recovery and return to the year before the end of the year, but I think this Texas Tech offense will still be able to score some points without him. Kliff Kingsbury has proven to be able to put points on the board no matter who starts at quarterback, and Jett Duffey had some big plays against the Sooners in relief last week.
Texas should score plenty too. The Red Raiders’ defense is better than last year, but it is still one of the most porous units in the conference too. This feels like a shootout.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State Under 52
Brian Lewerke has not been good over the last few weeks. Michigan State’s quarterback seems to have regressed and lost confidence in his arm with some very questionable throws and a willingness to check down that is far more pronounced. Fortunately, the Spartans defense has been great, and that has kept this team winning games.
Ohio State has been the polar opposite. The Buckeyes’ Dwayne Haskins has been electric in his first year as a starter, and this team has scored in bunches, but the defense has let them down. Greg Schiano’s unit has been pretty bad this season, and it seems likely the team will part ways with him this offseason.
With all that being said, I like the under in this game. The Spartans are pretty vanilla on offense, and I think Schiano won’t be as exposed as he has been by more innovative offenses, while the Spartans bottle up Haskins enough to push this under.
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