The UCF Knights have wanted this matchup for a long time and now they got it. The Knights will tangle with in-state foe Florida Gators on Thursday in the Gasparilla Bowl. This should be a regional rivalry with the schools separated by about 120 miles, but they’ve played just twice previously, both being blowout UF wins. The Gators are ripe for the taking with an in-between coach and several players either waiting to transfer or prepping for the NFL. And just how motivated are they going to be after crumbling in the second half of the season, watching their head coach get fired and ending the regular season with a 6-6 record? Despite all the turmoil the Gators are positioned as a 6.5-point favorite on the college football betting line.
The 2021 Gasparilla Bowl is slated for Thursday, December 23, at 7 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The game will air live on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UCF Knights +6.5
Florida Gators -6.5
Total 55.5
Odds Analysis
Many expected UCF to contend for the AAC title this year. However, a 56-21 loss to eventual conference champ and CFP participant Cincinnati in Week 7 set everyone straight. The Knights were 3-3 at the time but they used a strong push in the second half going 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS to finish at 8-4. The Knights were 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS over their final four games beating USF and Tulane each by four points while laying double figures on the closing line. Florida started fast winning three of its first four games with the only loss by two points to Alabama. The wheels fell off in the second half with embarrassing losses to LSU, South Carolina and Missouri. The Gators became bowl eligible with a season-ending win over Florida State but they went 0-6 ATS in their last six games and were 3-9 ATS overall.
UCF Knights
They certainly played a weaker schedule, but the Knights will be motivated to play their in-state rival. It’s hard to call this a rivalry since the teams have played twice with Florida winning both by a combined score of 100-27, but UCF has developed since the last meeting in 2006. They’re not as good as they were a few years ago when vying for a CFP berth with undefeated seasons and explosive offensive talent. The Knights are more traditional in their approach under Malzahn with the defense holding five of the last six opponents to 17 points or less. They were, however, gouged by the better teams on the schedule losing to Louisville, Cincy and SMU by allowing an average of 51 points in those games.
The Knights will need big games on offense from Mikey Keene and Isaiah Bowser. Keene took over after Dillon Gabriel broke his collarbone in Week 3 and played so well that Gabriel transferred. Keene completed nearly 64 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns. Bowser missed half the games due to injury and still rushed for 548 yards and seven touchdowns. And this could be the first time in a while the roster is complete. “Everyone has been practicing. We’re expecting our full team,” Malzahn said.
Florida Gators
We see it every bowl season when a more talented team gets upset. I’m sure the Gators weren’t thinking about the Gasparilla Bowl earlier in the season when they won three of their first four with a narrow defeat to Alabama. But after their second half collapse that led to the firing of Dan Mullen, they fought to get here, so they have that going for them. And I’m sure the thought of losing to UCF is something that will serve as motivation. Still, the Gators made a ton of mistakes down the stretch and will be without several key players for this matchup.
Florida gave up a lot of yards and points and the defense will be impacted by the decision of Zachary Carter to sit this one out. Carter led the team in sacks and was a force up front, but the NFL is now a priority. With Anthony Richardson on the shelf Emory Jones gets the nod at QB, though he’s already announced his intention to transfer. Jones led the team in rushing and the Gators will try and pound away on the ground. They average over 209 yards per game and UCF has yet to win when yielding more than 190 rushing yards in a game.
UCF vs. Florida Prediction
Tensions will certainly be high in this matchup and I anticipate UCF making it close. If the Gators can run the football successfully they will win, but never underestimate what motivates a player or a team. And the Knights have plenty of motivation, and a full roster.
BookMaker Pick: UCF Knights +6.5 / UNDER 55.5
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