I stayed above water on my college football under the radar picks hitting on two of my three games last week. And I’ll take that any day since the goal is to obviously win more than you lose. And after a few non-winning weeks I got some breathing room by going 4-2 the last two weekends giving me payouts in over 55 percent of the games for the season. Winners are out there and I’ll do my best to find more under the radar winners in Week 11 of the college football schedule.
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My only setback in Week 10 was a tough one. I either overvalued Maryland or undervalued Wisconsin in their Big Ten matchup. Whichever it was it was wrong. Averaging nearly 32 points coming in the Terps were blanked in the first half and scored just one touchdown in the 23-10 loss leaving them outside the 5-point spread. It pays to look at weather reports ahead of games with rainy conditions slowing down Maryland’s offense.
Catching Liberty with two touchdowns was a sweet deal. The Flames strolled into Arkansas and not only covered but won the game outright 21-19. You can say the Flames haven’t played anyone and their glossy record is tainted, but they are just one point away from being undefeated. Their only loss was to ranked Wake Forest, 37-36, in Week 3 when Liberty failed on a potential game-winning 2-point conversion.
San Diego State doesn’t have a quarterback and UNLV’s offense has dried up so backing the UNDER on a total of 48.5 was a no-brainer. The teams combined to score half that total in the Aztecs’ 14-10 win giving me a 2-1 record for a second straight week. I’ll look to continue the heater on my Week 11 under the radar picks.
Maryland Terrapins ( +5 ) at Wisconsin Badgers
The Terps have a lot of making up to do in the Big Ten and they’re trying to get it all done this season. Maryland has never had a winning conference record since joining the Big Ten and they haven’t won more than three league games in the previous seven seasons. They enter the Week 10 clash with Wisconsin at 6-2 overall with half those wins coming in Big Ten play, and they nearly upset Michigan a few weeks ago. Years of mediocrity still have folks doubting the Terps but I’m not one of them. They are for real and going against a club that fired its head coach recently. The Badgers are a rudderless ship with a leaky defense that will be exploited by Taulia Tagovailoa and an offense that averages better than 34 points. I’ll back the points with confidence in this one.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons ( U 76.5 )
I know both teams have the potential to put up a lot of points, but the total in this game looks to be an overreaction to previous matchups. And there are 11 players on each side trying to prevent points so it isn’t as easy as you might think. The teams combined to score more than 100 points in each of the last two meetings and their combined scoring averages are higher than the posted total with a lot of that damage done against non-conference opponents. It sounds like I’m making a case for the OVER when I’m actually trying to justify backing the UNDER. Wake has cooled off recently and I do think after the last two head-to-heads the teams will pay some attention to defense, which why I’m taking the UNDER.
Northwestern Wildcats ( +17 ) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Don’t let the record fool you. Northwestern could have a much better ledger at this point if some of their close games had a different outcome. And there were some close games during the current 8-game losing streak. The Cats are 4-0 ATS when catching at least 12 points on the closing line and they played an inspired game last week against Ohio State falling 21-7. And four other losses were by one score, so it’s safe to say Northwestern is better than their 1-8 record suggests. The Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and barely got by Nebraska 20-13 in their last outing. The offense has taken a hiatus averaging just 18.4 points in the last outings making the posted line look even more inviting for Northwestern.
SMU Mustangs ( -17.5 ) at USF Bulls
to beat a dead horse, or in this case a bull, but USF isn’t good. And if you still need convincing just take a look at their latest outing. In a battle of teams winless in the AAC, the league’s lowest scoring team racked up 621 yards as Temple blasted USF 54-28. The Bulls rank 130th in the FBS in total defense surrendering more than 503 yards per game and they sit 129th allowing 40 points per contest. Meanwhile, SMU is coming off a pair of wins where they scored a total of 122 points. The Mustangs covered the 21.5-point line in last year’s get together and they’ve covered three straight while going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The posted spread doesn’t seem to be nearly enough giving me reason to back the visitors.
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