There is money to be won on games with spread or totals that fly under the radar. For the first time in a month I had a winning week with two of my Week 9 UTR picks coming through keeping me in the black after I won 23 percent of the games from Weeks 5-7. That shows you just how good the picks were in the early part of the year. The goal is to always win more than you lose and so far I’ve been good enough hitting on just under 54 percent of my picks for the year. Winners are out there and I’ll do my best to scour the Week 10 college football schedule for some winning under the radar picks.
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Going nearly four years without a road win was weighing heavy on the New Mexico State club, but a matchup with UMass was a good opportunity to end that streak. The line for the game moved after I backed the Aggies at -2.5. The spread closed at a pick ‘em and as it turns out it didn’t really matter. The Aggies were playing well ahead of their scheduled Week 8 game with San Jose State that was postponed. The run continued with their third win in four games, 23-13 over the Minutemen. Another game where the line moved in my favor was the San Diego State-Fresno State clash. Catching 8.5 points with the Aztecs was a good deal that got even better when the line spiked to 11.5-points. SDSU led for most of the game before succumbing 32-28 giving me another win.
Showing that they have an offense, Iowa scored a season-high while more than doubling its scoring average in a 33-13 win over Northwestern. I didn’t expect that especially against a club known for its gritty defense under the team’s former linebacker. Oh well, that happens sometimes and it spoiled my perfect week. I was a little hesitant at the time simply because I thought the total of 37 was too low. But in three different games the Hawkeyes scored fewer than 10 points. I got baited into that one and it cost me. I’ll make sure that doesn’t happen again on my Week 10 under the radar picks.
Maryland Terrapins ( +5 ) at Wisconsin Badgers
The Terps have a lot of making up to do in the Big Ten and they’re trying to get it all done this season. Maryland has never had a winning conference record since joining the Big Ten and they haven’t won more than three league games in the previous seven seasons. They enter the Week 10 clash with Wisconsin at 6-2 overall with half those wins coming in Big Ten play, and they nearly upset Michigan a few weeks ago. Years of mediocrity still have folks doubting the Terps but I’m not one of them. They are for real and going against a club that fired its head coach recently. The Badgers are a rudderless ship with a leaky defense that will be exploited by Taulia Tagovailoa and an offense that averages better than 34 points. I’ll back the points with confidence in this one.
Liberty Flames ( +13.5 ) at Arkansas Razorbacks
There is such a thing as conference bias and it does exist. Just because a team plays in the SEC it doesn’t make them better than a Group of Five program or, in this case, an independent. The Flames have shown in the past an ability to rise to the occasion against big name programs and this would meet the criteria. Back in Week 3 Liberty failed on a 2-point conversion that would have given them the lead late in the fourth quarter against ranked Wake Forest. They ended up losing 37-36 as a 17-point road dog. They are on the road again catching 13.5 points at Arkansas and I like the Flames to at least keep it close.
UNLV Runnin Rebels at San Diego State Aztecs ( U 48.5 )
After opening the season with four wins in five games the Rebels hit a wall. They dropped their last three games scoring a total of 35 points. Two touchdowns came in the second half of a blowout loss to Notre Dame a few weeks ago. And one thing the Aztecs can do is play defense. They’ve had to with an offense that hasn’t clicked. They average just 20.3 points with their 28 points in last week’s loss the most scored against a FBS opponent this season. The Aztecs beat FCS Idaho State 38-7 in Week 2 but failed to score more than 23 points in six straight games against FBS foes before last week.
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