The chances of the TCU Horned Frogs duplicating their impressive run to the College Football Playoff in 2023 are slim. So slim in fact that oddsmakers set their win total at just 7.5. Nobody expected TCU to have an undefeated regular season and play for the Big 12 title in 2022; they did. Nobody had the Frogs getting an invite to the playoff party; they did that as well. It was the kind of season that rarely happens for a program like TCU, but one that certainly can. And Bitcoin betting on them would have been profitable. The Frogs will have a target on their back and an overhauled roster, but like we saw last year anything is possible.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the TCU Horned Frogs
Over 7.5 ( -140 )
Under 7.5 ( +124 )
Gary Patterson helped put TCU football on the map with three double-digit win seasons in the first six after joining the Big 12. In his first season Sonny Dykes took them to a place few programs have ever visited. In the CFP era only powerhouse programs Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, LSU and Oregon played in the championship game. Sure, the Frogs got blasted last year, but they accomplished something no other Big 12 program ever did.
Roster
Some of the top programs in the country have never reached the CFP championship so judging the 2023 Horned Frogs on last year’s results would be unfair. They do have to replace a lot of pieces from last season, but in the overall scheme of things they are going to have a decent club. The biggest piece that needs replacing is Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan. That probably shouldn’t be a big deal since last year’s opening day starter Chandler Morris is ready to take over. Morris was hurt in the win over Colorado paving the way for Duggan. And the rest, as they say, is history.
The offense is the biggest question mark entering the season. It’s up to Morris to keep the unit playing at a high level. Last year the Frogs ranked ninth nationally averaging 38.8 points while amassing 455 yards per game. Morris is regarded as a better passer than Duggan, but lacks the mobility that allowed Duggan to rush for 423 yards and nine TDs. The top two rushers and top three receivers from a season ago also need to be replaced.
Dykes used the portal to potentially shore up those areas. And why not target a top program for top talent. TCU landed Alabama’s Trey Sanders to help in the backfield and JoJo Earle to assist the passing game. The biggest threat in the passing game is Quentin Johnston, who caught 29 passes last season. More impressive was his 100 percent contested-catch rate during the regular season. The offense may not be as explosive as last year’s group, but Morris should help elevate the passing game while consistency is more attainable.
The Frogs went 13-2 overall despite having the 95th ranked total defense. Unlike the other side of the ball, the group has several starters returning with the hope of being a bit better at slowing opponents. Depth and size were issues facing the unit last year getting worn down at the end of the season. TCU surrendered 34 points in the Big 12 title game loss, allowed 45 points in the CFP semifinal win over Michigan, and was hammered 65-7 in the championship matchup.
The secondary has a bunch of young players and the line lacks a consistent pass rusher. That means we could see a number of shootouts again on the TCU schedule.
Schedule
How the Frogs fare depends on how they traverse the opening two-thirds of their schedule. Every game is winnable with non-conference tilts against Colorado, FCS Nicholls and SMU. They open Big 12 play against Houston and also get newcomer BYU in that span. The biggest game comes at the end of October with a Big 12 title game rematch against K-State. The final stretch has games at Texas Tech and OU sandwiched around home contests with Texas and Baylor.
Prediction
A lot of talent needs to be replaced, especially on offense, but if Morris can deliver and stay healthy the Frogs should score. They need to be better defensively after surrendering nearly 30 points per game and an average of 408.2 yards. The win total is low and the Frogs have talent to reach another conference title game allowing me to confidently back the OVER.
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