After seeing nearly all their Pac-12 brethren abandon ship for other leagues during the latest round of realignment and getting overlooked themselves, the Oregon State Beavers might just have that added incentive to do something special in 2023. Last year the Beavs had one of the most successful seasons in school history winning nine regular season games to easily eclipse their projected total of 5.5. They capped off their first 10-win campaign since 2006 with a 30-3 waxing of Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl and oddsmakers have taken notice of the upward trajectory under Jonathan Smith. Prior to last year the Beavers won at least nine games just four times in six decades yet they’ll have to hit that number to exceed their 2023 win total of 8.5.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Oregon State Beavers
Over 8.5 ( +110 )
Under 8.5 ( -126 )
Apparently Smith is a good luck charm. In the history of OSU football that dates back over a century, there have been a total of three ... THREE ... double-digit win seasons. Smith quarterbacked the 2000 squad that went 11-1 and he coached last year’s 10-3 team. It wasn’t a fluke, either. In 2021 the Beavers laid the foundation by going 7-6 with Smith changing the culture. It’s also allowed the program to attract top recruits and transfers with former Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei ready to take charge of the offense.
Roster
I mentioned transfers and a big one was Uiagalelei, who fell out of favor with Clemson. A highly-touted recruit, he was thrust into a difficult situation with the Tigers taking over for No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Trevor Lawrence. The expectations were great and while Uiagalelei wasn’t bad, he wasn’t Lawrence or Deshaun Watson or Tajh Boyd. A change of scenery is likely what he needs to shine. However, starting isn’t even a given since the Beavers return Ben Gulbranson, who led the team to seven wins in their last eight games.
If OSU is to take the next step the offense has to be more productive and Uiagalelei certainly gives team a better shot. Agile with a rocket arm, Uiagalelei can help jumpstart an offense that averaged less than 200 yards through the air. One reason why that number had the Beavs ranked 105th nationally was because the ground game was so good averaging nearly 200 yards an outing. That production should continue with leading rushers Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick and Jam Griffin all back. The trio combined to rush for over 2,000 yards and 18 TDs.
Smith built his team from the line out on both sides of the football and that paid off last season. The O guys were among the best in the country keeping opposing defenses out of the backfield tied for 14th in fewest sacks allowed and tied for 7th in TFLs against. And with four starters from that group returning the skill guys should feel comfortable doing their thing.
It might be much to expect the same production from a defense that lost its top seven tacklers from a season ago. In a league that had seven teams average more than 30 points and four average more than 500 yards, the Beavs stood out for their defense leading the Pac-12 in total and scoring defense. The Beavers also boasted the best red zone defense in the country allowing points on 66.7 percent of drives inside their 20. As good as the group was in just about every category, they struggled getting to the quarterback totaling just 20 sacks. There are pieces to build around and enough experience to not start over, but we likely see a dip in numbers.
Schedule
The schedule sets up nicely with no Power 5 non-conference games, though there are two games against possible future conference foes in San Diego State and San Jose State from the Mountain West. They also don’t have USC on the slate, which is a bonus and their three biggest tilts against Utah, UCLA and Washington are all at home. And possibly the only road game they won’t be favored in comes at the end of the string against Oregon.
Prediction
If you like rooting for the underdog than Oregon State’s your team. They changed that a bit last season with their three losses to the top teams in the Pac-12 – Utah, USC and Washington. And they could have another winning season if the offense clicks under Uiagalelei and the defense is anywhere near what it was in 2022. Unfortunately there isn’t a history of success at the school and nine wins is high number.
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