The first season under Brian Kelly was a banger for the LSU Tigers winning 10 games and the SEC West. Kelly has been a winner at every stop of his coaching journey and turning the program around after a two-year stretch that produced an overall 11-12 record was epic. Now, with the bar raised the task is getting back to the conference championship and into the CFP, which is no easy task in the ultra competitive conference and the toughest division in college football. There were a few gaffes last season and the Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa for their annual showdown with the Tide leaving little margin for error in their quest for 10 regular season wins.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the LSU Tigers
Over 9.5 ( -123 )
Under 9.5 ( +107 )
During an eight-year stretch from 2014 to 2021 the Tigers won at least 10 games only twice. One of those was with perhaps the greatest college football team of all time in the 2019 Joe Burrow-led squad that went 15-0. The previous season produced 10 wins with a Fiesta Bowl victory the last. In other words, putting the win total at 9.5 means the Tigers will need another strong run. Kelly has talent, but sometimes that alone isn’t enough in the SEC.
Roster
A motivated star quarterback is sometimes all it takes for an offense to be special. Jayden Daniels had a monster season in 2022 completing nearly 69 percent of his passes for 2,913 yards and 17 TDs with only three interceptions. He also rushed for a team-high 885 yards with 11 more scores. Heck, he even caught a TD pass showing what kind of special player he is. The plan was to play one season but that changed with Daniels knowing this group can be special and chasing a national championship is a realistic possibility.
There is a capable backup in Garrett Nussmeier, should he stick around, but the Tigers are better with Daniels on the field. He took a lot of punishment last year behind a line that allowed the second-most sacks in the SEC and running the football 186 times gives defenders a free crack. The line should be better with four starters back, including NFL prospect Will Campbell, and the ground game will feature more of the talented group of running backs.
Daniels was the only player to reach triple digits in carries, which I’m sure wasn’t the plan. The Tigers need to make an effort to get Josh Williams more involved. The team’s second leading rusher in 2022, Williams averaged 5.5 yards per carry with six scores. Noah Cain averaged 5.4 yards a tote with 10 TDs. The pair also combined for 30 receptions. Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs is also in the mix after running or 822 yards and four TDs a season ago.
The Bayou Bengals have produced some of the top receiver talent the last few years and the position is well-stocked with Malik Nabers coming off season that produced team bests of 72 catches and 1,017 yards. At 6-4 Brian Thomas is a target with five of his 31 receptions finishing in the end zone.
To hit the OVER on the win total and compete for a SEC title the defense has to be better. The group allowed at least 31 points in five of its last seven games against SEC foes, including 50 in the championship game loss to Georgia. The return of Maason Smith will go a long way to making the necessary improvements. In Smith’s absence from an injury in the 2022 opener, Mekhi Wingo earned all-conference recognition giving the club a sold front line. The portal opened up bringing several players to fill voids at linebacker and in the secondary.
Schedule
Splitting games against Florida State and Alabama is a must in order to reach the OVER. Those are two mammoth contests and opponents with the Tide showdown likely deciding the SEC West like it did last year. It’s the only road game in the team’s final six outings. The Tigers finish the season with three straight in Death Valley, unfortunately two of those are against Florida and Texas AM.
Prediction
I like the Tigers but winning 10 regular season games with this schedule is a monumental task. Daniels and the offense will keep them in most of their games, but avoiding the hiccups is something they couldn’t avoid last season and the defense is still a work in progress leading to a number of shootouts and LSU won’t win them all.
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