If the Ottawa Redblacks can knock off the Toronto Argonauts on Monday night, the East Division becomes a three-way tie between Ottawa, Toronto, and Montreal. Such is life in the East where the teams constantly beat up on each other, but have a hard time beating the teams in the West. The line for this one isn’t out yet as Ottawa just played Montreal on Wednesday night, but Toronto should be around a three- or four-point favorite.
Kickoff for this CFL Week 5 game is set for Monday, July 24, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET from BMO Field. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Odds Analysis
Ottawa is finally in the win column. The Redblacks have been the unluckiest team in the CFL through the first quarter of the season. They have played well enough to win twice against what many consider to be the best team in the league in Calgary and lost be a combined three points to Toronto and Edmonton.
Bettors are happy with the Redblacks though. Ottawa might be 1-3-1 on the season, but the team is also 4-1 ATS. The under has cashed in three straight too as Ottawa’s defense hasn’t been so bad after playing Calgary twice to start the season.
Toronto has encapsulated the East vs. West dynamic. The Argonauts have gotten beaten pretty handily by the two West teams they have faced, failing to cover either game. However, against East Division sides, this team has fared well. The Argos have won both games and covered each as well.
Previous Meeting
It’s no surprise that the two leading receivers in the CFL went off the last time these two sides faced each other. Greg Ellingson is currently the league’s leading receiver and had a whale of a game against a Toronto secondary that has struggled against good receivers. He ended up with 10 catches for 170 yards against the Argos.
Toronto’s SJ Green had a fantastic performance as well. Green had his best game of the season, with 10 receptions for 210 yards. His reunion with Marc Trestman has been very beneficial for both parties and he gives Ricky Ray a great veteran to throw to.
Key Stat
Although these two teams finished with one point and one total yard of each other in their last meeting, they got there in very different ways.
The key for Toronto was success on first down. The Argos averaged 6.1 yards per play on first down thanks to a good short passing game and a running game that was effective when called upon.
Ottawa was behind the eight ball more often than not on first down. The Redblacks averaged just 2.7 yards per play on first down. The running game could only muster 3.4 yards per carry and Harris was sacked five times by Toronto on the afternoon. Harris’ ability to convert on second down was impressive though and almost got Ottawa the win.
Free ATS Pick
These are the two best passers in the East, so it will be pretty interesting to see how the second meeting between these two teams goes. Both had good performances in the first outing, with Harris and Ray each throwing for over 365 yards and two touchdowns on the day.
Mistakes killed Ottawa in the end when it faced Toronto two weeks ago. The Redblacks fumbled on a two-point conversion chance that would have won the game and threw a costly interception in the fourth quarter that gave the Argos the ball at the 10-yard line. Toronto scored a touchdown on the next play and that proved costly in the end.
Despite the extra week of rest for Toronto and the short turnaround time for Ottawa, back the Redblacks. BMO Field is not really a home field advantage and Ottawa is the more talented team.
CFL Odds: Redblacks 28, Argonauts 24
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