The first round of the LEC Spring Split Playoffs gave us perhaps the biggest upset we’ve ever seen during the postseason in Europe. G2 Esports were a massive favorite to beat MAD Lions and advance in the winner’s bracket, but their overaggressive playstyle came back to bite them squarely in the rear end. They lost in five games to get bumped down to the loser’s bracket, giving MAD Lions a chance to automatically make the finals with a win over Fnatic on Friday. Meanwhile, Origen and Rogue will square off in the other best of five series on Friday, with the loser being knocked out of the postseason and the winner guaranteeing a spot in the top four.
Fnatic -430
MAD Lions +310
Fnatic’s motto in their series with Origen was if it’s not broken, don’t fix it. Rekkles played fasting Senna during all four games, allowing Hylissang to become a damage threat on champions like Zilean and Trundle. That was very unexpected as Rekkles is known for playing traditional AD Carries in the bottom lane, so look for MAD Lions to either ban away Senna in every game or have specific counters in mind.
We saw some great play from Fnatic’s laners last weekend too. Bwipo showed his versatility by using four different champions and shining on Ornn and Zac, while Nemesis was excellent in the mid lane on both Diana and Yasuo. They will both be a problem for MAD Lions, as they are more talented than Orome and Humanoid, and they won’t opt into the uneven trades that G2 were consistently taking last week.
The difference makers for MAD Lions last week were Shadow and Carzzy. Shadow showed why he is considered one of the best young junglers in Europe with a 5.3 KDA while being responsible for over 20 percent of his team’s damage per Games of Legends, while Carzzy dealt out a whopping 31.9 percent of MAD Lions’ damage against G2.
Most of the pressure will be on Carzzy this week. The rookie bottom laner will be facing the best AD Carry in the history of Europe in Rekkles, and Carzzy was dumpstered by Rekkles’ Xayah in MAD Lions’ penultimate game of the regular season. Fnatic will show restraint and not gift kills to MAD Lions, winning this series in four games.
Origen -315
Rogue +238
It took a few weeks, but we finally saw great play out of Rogue once more last week against Misfits. Rogue won that series 3-1 thanks to some resiliency and solid play from their entire team. In an encouraging sign, the team put real thought into strong drafts, and that helped Rogue advance in the lower bracket.
Larssen was very strong in the mid lane, and he will need to play well again versus Nukeduck for Rogue to pull off the upset. Nukeduck’s Rumble left a lot to be desired against Fnatic last week, so don’t expect him to use the champion much in this series. However, he can be deadly on assassins like Qiyana and LeBlanc, so he must be mitigated if he takes one of these power picks.
The battle between Xerxe and Inspired in the jungle will go a long way to determining who will advance in this series. Xerxe has been fantastic on Gragas and Karthus throughout the year, but he posted a KDA under 1.0 in three games on three other champions against Fnatic last weekend. That reliance could help Inspired get the upper hand, making Rogue a very live underdog at this price.
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