Just like they did in each of their first three NBA Playoff series, the Miami Heat won on the road stealing homecourt advantage from the Denver Nuggets. Miami rebounded from a sorry shooting display in Game 1, played strong defense on everybody but Nikola Jokic, and came away with a 111-108 win after Jamal Murray missed a potential game-tying three-pointer at the horn. Miami will host Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday with the series tied 1-1. Miami took care of a few things on Sunday snapping a 7-game overall losing streak to the Nuggets while handing them their first home setback this postseason. Underdogs virtually all this postseason the Heat are catching 2.5-points on the opening line. They’ve been a good bet as the underdog going 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS. The Nuggets haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They had a losing record during the regular year and are 4-3 this postseason, though they’ve won their last three away contests.
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2023 NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Lines
Denver Nuggets -2
Miami Heat +2
Total: 214.5
Money Line: Denver -143, Miami +123
Picks for NBA Finals Game 3
We may have learned something about the Nuggets during their Game 2 loss. Most people, me included, think Nikola Jokic is the guy that makes the offense click. And of course you’d think that given his numbers. He nearly averaged a triple-double during the season with 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists. He is averaging a triple-double during the postseason with his 41-point effort in Game 2 increasing his average to 30.4. He adds 12.9 rebounds and 10.1 assists. So you’d think beating the Nuggets would revolve around stopping Jokic.
Jokic is so good he’s going to get his points no matter what. The Heat realized this and focused their energy and attention on second leading scorer Jamal Murray by making an adjustment ahead of Game 2. The Heat went big inserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup thus allowing Jimmy Butler, one of the NBA’s fiercest defenders, to lock down on Murray. The strategy worked with Murray scoring 18 points, his second lowest total of the playoffs.
A good barometer of how ineffective the Nuggets were on offense was the fact that Jokic had only four assists in Game 2. Sure he scored 41 points hitting 16 of 28 shots, but the Heat were fine letting Jokic have his shots. This bring us to an in-game parlay bet with Jokic going over this point total on a player prop. And with the Heat locking down on Murray it was difficult for Jokic to get his assists. While he’s practically a triple-double machine, I’d fade Jokic in the prop categories that include assists, but he can pretty much do what he wants when it comes to scoring.
One thing’s for sure and that’s Murray taking the Game 2 loss personal. He can light up the scoreboard as good as anyone, and his missed triple at the end of Game 2, that would’ve tied the score, is a sore spot. We will see how the Nuggets respond on Wednesday now that they’re facing adversity for the first time this postseason. In each of the first three series they won the first two games and never trailed. They will be tested in Game 3 since the Nuggets have been mediocre at best on the road. Three straight playoff road wins lifted their record this postseason to 4-3 yet they’re just 23-25 overall on the road during the year.
The Heat were able to get a grip on each series by winning on the road. They opened the previous three series with a road W gaining split and stealing homecourt advantage. The Heat proceeded to win at home going undefeated until dropping two home games to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Final. Miami will shoot threes since that’s a huge part of their offense. They stumbled in Game 1 only to rebound hitting 49 percent of their triples in Game 2. Six players made multiple three-pointers with Gabe Vincent and Max Strus dropping four apiece. That helped Miami cash the OVER and with the total opening at a relatively low 214.5 you can look for the clubs to top that number on Wednesday.
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