The first-round matchup between the Northern Iowa Panthers and the St. John's Red Storm in the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament features a classic 5-vs-12 game that many people watch closely for potential upsets.
St. John's arrives as one of the hottest teams in the country after winning both the Big East regular season and tournament titles. Led by coach Rick Pitino and Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor, the Red Storm have won 19 of their last 20 games.
Their identity is built on a top-ranked defense that recently held UConn to just 52 points in the conference championship. Offensively, the team relies on Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins, and Oziyah Sellers, and they have seen improved efficiency since inserting Dillon Mitchell into the starting lineup.
Northern Iowa earned its spot by winning four games in four days to capture the Missouri Valley Conference tournament title as a No. 6 seed.
The Panthers play at an extremely slow pace, ranking near the bottom of Division I in adjusted tempo, to limit possessions and drag opponents into half-court battles. Guard Trey Campbell leads their scoring at 13.7 points per game, supported by a defense that allows only 61.3 points per contest.
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Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John’s Red Storm Odds at Bookmaker
The first round NCAA Tournament matchup features the St. John's Red Storm against the Northern Iowa Panthers on Friday, March 20, 2026. The game is scheduled to tip off at 7:10 p.m. EDT at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California. CBS will provide the primary television coverage.
The point spread lists St. John's at -10.5. Northern Iowa is the underdog at +10.5.
The over-under for total points is set at 132.5, reflecting Northern Iowa's tendency to play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and St. John's elite defensive ranking.
Moneyline odds place St. John's as a heavy favorite at -625. Northern Iowa is positioned as a longshot underdog with moneyline odds at +440.
Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Iowa holds a 23-12 straight-up record after its late-season surge to win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament title. The Panthers have been particularly strong against the spread with a 20-14 record, covering in nearly 59 percent of their matchups this season. Similar to their first-round opponent, Northern Iowa has seen the under hit in 20 of its 34 games, largely due to a deliberate offensive pace that ranks among the slowest in the country.
Northern Iowa has a lower scoring average of 69.9 points per game, which ranks 313th nationally. However, the Panthers are highly efficient when they do shoot, ranking forty-eighth in field goal percentage at 48 percent and ninety-sixth in three-point accuracy at 35.5 percent. Their greatest strength is a scoring defense that ranks first in the country, allowing only 61.3 points per contest.
St. John’s Red Storm
St. John's enters the NCAA Tournament with a straight-up record of 28-6 and has been one of the most reliable teams for bettors, finishing the season with an 18-16 record against the spread. The Red Storm have trended heavily toward the under this season, with their games going under the total in 21 of 34 contests, largely due to their top-ranked scoring defense.
St. John's enters this matchup with a significant offensive advantage, averaging 81.6 points per game, which ranks fifty-sixth in the nation. The Red Storm relies on a high-possession style, ranking sixty-fourth in adjusted tempo, to create scoring opportunities. Defensively, they are elite, allowing only 65.2 points per game and ranking thirteenth nationally in scoring defense.
Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s Best Bets
The Red Storm are arguably the hottest team in the nation, coming off a Big East title and boasting a massive athleticism advantage.
For the total, the under 132.5 is the preferred play. Northern Iowa plays at one of the five slowest tempos in all of college basketball.
In the prop market, betting the over on Zuby Ejiofor’s rebounds is a strong option. The Big East Player of the Year faces a Northern Iowa frontcourt that lacks elite size.
Main Pick: St. John’s Red Storm
Over/Under Pick: Under the Total
Player Prop Picks: Zuby Ejiofor’s Over the Rebounds Total
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