After topping the Colorado Rockies on Monday afternoon, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Atlanta Braves in the best-of-five division series opener on Thursday. The defending National League champions will try to get back to the Fall Classic for the second consecutive season, but the first step will be toppling a young, exciting, and surprising Atlanta club. Does it makes sense to go with the chalk in this series or can the underdog Braves pull an upset? It should be fun to find out.
The first game of the division series between the Braves and Dodgers is slated for Thursday, October 4, 2018 at Dodger Stadium. The venue will switch to SunTrust Park for the third and fourth game of the series, if needed. All five games—as needed—will be broadcast on either FS1 or MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Braves have an extra day of rest which could be a blessing or a curse for Atlanta. We’ll see if they come out rusty in Game 1 or are able to use the time off to come out of the gate healthy and rested.
Whichever the case, they’ll play their first two game on the road as the Dodgers ended the regular season with a better record by a game and a half. Interestingly, the Braves have fared better on the road than at home, posting a .580 winning percentage away from SunTrust Park. The Dodgers are another team that’s been better on the road than at home. Could the home field advantage for L.A. actually be a detriment rather than a blessing?
Regardless, who you are playing and how you are playing means more than where, at least in this matchup. The Dodgers are playing a Braves team they beat in five of seven games, outscoring them by 17 runs in those seven games.
L.A. also comes into this series fresh off an emotional win over the Rockies to take the NL West division and having gone 19-9 since the start of September. The Braves were 16-12 in the final month of the year and dropped four of their last five games.
Starting Pitching Exploration
Momentum is only as good as the next day’s starter and momentum, in a short series, is huge.
When comparing the rotations of the Dodgers and Braves, L.A. should be considered the favorites. Statistically, these two teams are rather balanced ranking first and second, respectively, in the NL in terms of rotational ERAs, but in the postseason some of the back-end starters get weeded out leaving us with three or four arms.
For the Dodgers, those four arms include three lefties in Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, along with rookie right-hander Walker Buehler. The Braves counter with Mike Foltynewicz, Kevin Gausman, Anibal Sanchez and Julio Teheran.
Kershaw’s name stands out amongst the eight because of how dominant he’s been over the course of his career. We’ve seen a bit of regression the last year or two, but he still put up a 2.73 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 26 starts this season. When he’s healthy, he’s still one of the best starters in the game.
While he’s put up video game like numbers in his 11-year career in the regular season, he’s thrown 122 innings in the postseason with far more pedestrian numbers, pitching to a 4.35 ERA. While some pitchers raise their game on the biggest stage, to date Kershaw hasn’t been one of them. Nevertheless, he’s still an elite pitcher.
Matching up with the Braves’ ace, Kershaw has to get the edge. Foltynewicz made the NL All-Star team this year and has had a great year, but he doesn’t have the experience or track record of Kershaw. He’ll be making his postseason debut.
He is, however, coming off a season where he put up a 13-10 record with a 2.85 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 183 innings. Those numbers are in line with the season Kershaw had for the Dodgers.
Moving into Game 2, Ryu figures to start for the Dodgers given his 1.15 ERA at home. Dave Roberts will try to get him a start at Dodger Stadium. Ryu was limited to just 15 starts, but the 31-year old southpaw has really delivered in those games, going 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.008 WHIP over 82.1 innings pitched. His last three starts have been absolutely amazing with just one run allowed combined in all three.
Who the Braves counter with against Ryu is still undetermined. Gausman or Sanchez could get the start.
Sanchez has had a resurgence in Atlanta. It looked like his career was over after a couple bad years, but he reinvented himself and has been a huge part of this Braves rotation. The Braves were just 13-12 when the veteran right-hander took the ball this season, but he gave Atlanta a chance to win most every time out, pitching to a 2.83 ERA, 3.62 FIP and 1.083 WHIP. He proved over 25 appearances that his success was not a mirage. He continued to perform well time and time again. Like Ryu, he’s been throwing the ball very well, allowing just four runs combined in his last four starts.
As for Gausman, the former Oriole has made 10 starts since joining the rotation in Atlanta and he’s pitched exceptionally well. Atlanta has won seven of those 10 starts and he’s pitching to a 2.87 ERA. Combined with his time in Baltimore, Gausman has a 3.92 ERA in 31 starts on the year.
Whether Gausman or Sanchez start Game 3, the Dodgers will likely be sending Buehler to the hill after he dealt in the play-in game on Monday against the Rockies. He held Colorado scoreless while on the mound, improving his rookie numbers to 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. He got better and better as the season progressed, putting up a 2.03 ERA in the second half. Buehler faced the Dodgers just once this year—in the first half—but threw well, allowing one run and just two hits in 5.1 innings.
Should either team need a fourth starter, it would fall to Hill and Teheran. Hill is a grizzled vet and a dependable arm, reliable a couple times through the order. Teheran is a much more volatile option. He can look unhittable at times and blow up at others. He pitched well in September, but often walks the proverbial tight-rope when he’s on the hill.
All in all, the Dodgers would seemingly have the advantage on the mound though the Braves’ lot have all pitched rather well on the season.
Offensive Comparison
The Dodgers have scored more runs than any other team in the NL and have hit a league leading 235 home runs. The Braves rank fifth in the NL in runs scored, but second in batting average—ahead of the Dodgers—at .257.
Both of these teams can hit, but more recently the Dodgers offensive edge over the Braves has been magnified with Los Angeles producing a .849 team OPS in the final month of the season compared to Atlanta’s .704. L.A. has been raking, batting .274 as a team while the Braves hit just .238.
The Dodgers just have an insane amount of offensive depth. They have 10 players with at least a dozen home runs for the team and an OPS+ of at least 110. They’ve got eight 20-home run bats. On top of that, they have Justin Turner and Max Muncy both with an OBP over .390.
The team has a plethora of moving parts and the ability to move players around based on matchups.
Since being acquired from the Pirates, David Freese has been a huge bat off the bench, further deepening an already deep offense.
Over the last month of the season, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson all produced an OPS north of .900.
For the Braves, the offense hasn’t been quite as hot lately though Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman have continued to rake.
Acuna has played in just 111 games, but had a monster rookie season, batting .293 with a .917 OPS, 26 home runs and 16 steals. The 20-year old has taken over the leadoff spot and has a .328/.409/.634 slash line since taking over the top spot in the order. That’s one way to get the game started.
In the middle, Freeman is as professional a hitter as they come with a .302/.388/.505 slash line, 44 doubles, 23 home runs and 98 RBIs.
The Braves don’t have as much depth as the Dodgers, but this is still a very balanced lineup. Johan Camargo, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki and Ozzie Albies have put up big years. Ender Inciarte has had a huge second half. Dansby Swanson is a solid bat at short, too. One through eight, the Braves have a good option.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Braves’ bullpen is a bit underrated. The acquisition of Brad Brach has been a stabilizing one in the middle innings while Arodys Vizcaino, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle and A.J. Minter have been strong late in the game.
While there are some talented arms in the Atlanta pen, the unit has a whole still has the third worst ERA of all ten playoff teams, ranking ahead of only the Cleveland Indians and Colorado Rockies.
Atlanta has some young, inexperienced arms in the mix late in games and that could be a factor in postseason play when the moments are magnified. Can the young guns step up and get the job done? They have the talent, but we’ll see if they’re ready to step into the big moments and execute their pitches.
Meanwhile, on the other side of this matchup, the Dodgers’ bullpen is their biggest weakness, but they’ve got a few more proven arms.
Kenley Jansen hasn’t had a typical Kenley Jansen-like year, but he’s still considered an elite closer and he’s got an impressive postseason resume. Over the years, getting to him in October has proven troublesome for L.A. Brandon Morrow did the role well last year, but the team stuck Kenta Maeda in the pen to help, too, and he delivered. He’s back in the pen along with other rotational pieces in Alex Wood and Ross Stripling to supplement the likes of Scott Alexander, Pedro Baez and Josh Fields.
Jansen gave up a couple runs on Monday to the Rockies, but that wasn’t in a save situation so there’s not too much concern there, but it is worth watching. This pen is heavily dependent on Jansen, even with the rotational reinforcements. After all, we saw the team struggle when Jansen was on the DL earlier this year.
MLB Pick
Simply put, the Dodgers are a better team than the Braves. They’ve got the best rotation ERA in the National League, they’ve scored the most runs in the NL, and they’ve posted superior bullpen ERA to the Braves by nearly half a run.
Kershaw, Ryu and Buehler is a lot for a young team to contend with and the bullpen with Stripling, Maeda and Wood is much improved from the one they had in the regular season.
In the end, the Dodgers are a deeper team with more options for Dave Roberts off the bench and in the bullpen. Look for the Dodgers to topple the Braves in this NLDS matchup.
Atlanta’s going to put up a fight, but they’re still a year or two away from making too much noise in the postseason. Take the Dodgers in Five over the Braves.
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