The San Diego Padres remain one of the biggest early season surprises in the game. Despite a loaded farm system and some key free agent acquisitions the last couple years, most view the Padres as still being a season or two away. For now, they find themselves in the thick of things as they get set for the final game of a brief two-game series against the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers will host the Padres in the contest, looking to expand their division lead against the upstart group of youngsters.
First pitch for the game between the Padres and Dodgers is scheduled for Wednesday, May 15, 2019, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers took two out of three when these two teams met in San Diego and are looking to grab another win against the Padres on Wednesday night.
L.A. is the better team on paper, particularly on offense, but the gap in the divisional standings isn’t that great.
The Dodgers have a much better run differential are have been the best offense in the NL this year. The Padres, meanwhile, rank in the bottom half of the league in most categories save for homers.
San Diego is getting its share of long balls and will try and get a few big homers to carry them to a surprise win on Wednesday.
Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes each have 10 homers a piece, but with them—like most of the team—contact and OBP are a concern.
Fernando Tatis Jr. helps bring an extra dynamic to the offense with a .300/.360/.550 slash line, but he’s been on the shelf. He’s expected back off the IL in time for Wednesday’s showdown, but we’ll see if he’s healthy and, if he is, if he shows any signs of rust.
With Tatis in the lineup, it pushes Manny Machado back to third base and deepens the lineup which does still have a few holes, most notably at second base where Ian Kinsler is batting .177 and behind the plate where Austin Hedges has struggled.
On the other side of this matchup, the Dodgers have out-homered the Padres, doing better at the one thing the Padres have been successful doing on offense.
L.A. is first in the league in homers, but also boasts a .256 team average and a .344 team OBP. Cody Bellinger’s 1.234 OPS and 14 dingers certainly stand out, but Justin Turner’s recent surge has added an extra dimension to this offense.
Probable Pitchers
Starting pitching has been a huge part of the Padres’ early season success with the collection of starting pitchers all out-performing expectations. That includes Matt Strahm who is slated to get the start on Wednesday night.
Strahm’s season started off poorly, allowing five runs in just 2.2 innings in his debut, but since that point he’s pitched to a 1.98 ERA in six starts. That leaves him with a 3.00 ERA in his first seven outings of the year. Not bad for the young southpaw.
Digging in deeper, the 27-year old’s success seems to be more than just luck, too. He’s got a 3.31 FIP and 1.103 WHIP. He’s been especially adept at avoiding free passes, with just six walks allowed in his 39 innings of work. That’s lower than half of his walk rate over his career.
Strahm will be looking for his fifth consecutive quality start on Wednesday. In his last start, he pitched 6.1 innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts. He did allow a walk, but it was his first walk allowed in his last five starts.
On the other side of the ball, the Dodgers are turning to a veteran in right-hander Kenta Maeda. The 31-year old is 4-2 in eight starts this season with a 4.03 ERA. He’s got a 4.40 FIP and 1.299 WHIP in his 44.2 innings. He’s been largely a league average hurler in the early going of 2019. That said, he is coming off his best start of the season, throwing six scoreless frames against the Nationals.
Maeda has already faced the Padres this year. On May 5, he allowed four runs in six innings against them.
Over his career, he’s 5-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 14 games, including a dozen starts, against San Diego.
Walks have been an issue for Maeda this season. In his start against the Padres, he allowed three walks and all three scored. He’s allowed 20 walks in 44.2 innings this year and has seen his walk rate climb now each of the last three seasons.
Live Betting
Both the Dodgers and Padres rank in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA, but San Diego has one edge: the ninth inning.
Kenley Jansen is still a dominant force at the end of the game for the Dodgers and he’s still getting his strikeouts, but he’s been beatable with the long ball. He’s allowed four of them and has a 4.67 ERA in 17.1 innings of work. Kirby Yates, meanwhile, has four more saves and a 1.35 ERA, with just three runs allowed and no homers given up. His FIP is even better than the ERA at 0.90.
Yates has pitched better than Jansen so far this year. There’s no way around that, but the rest of the Padres’ pen hasn’t been quite as strong. Trey Wingenter was throwing well, but he’s now on the IL. Craig Stammen and Adam Warren are veteran options and while Stammen has a 3.38 ERA in 21.1 innings, he also has allowed four homers. Warren has allowed six with eight walks in 16.2 innings, leaving him with a 7.42 FIP.
For the Dodgers, they at least have Dylan Floro and Scott Alexander throwing well in a setup role even if Joe Kelly remains one of the worst free-agent signings of the offseason.
MLB Pick
Strahm has pitched well and should continue his stretch of quality starts against the Dodgers on Wednesday, but Maeda is coming off a dominant outing and look for him to match the Padres’ lefty up pitch for pitch.
Count on a close game with both pitching staffs keeping their teams in it, but the Dodgers have the more potent offense with several more ways to score. They’ll get the extra run needed to put them over the top.
Save for Yates in the ninth for the Padres, there are questions in the pen for both these teams. As long as the Dodgers can grab a lead and avoid Yates, the pen is a wash.
Take the home team to get the win at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Padres 5
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