MLB Odds – Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

The offseason acquisitions of the Philadelphia Phillies are paying off in the early going. Bryce Harper is doing his thing, which he should for the amount of money he’s making. And the under the radar pickups of J.T. Realmuto and Andrew McCutcheon have rejuvenated the franchise and its fan base.

The NL East is expected to be competitive throughout with the New York Mets rotation potentially one of the best in the game, at least the top part of it. If the hurlers stay healthy and the offense continues to click, there’s no reason to believe the Mets can’t be a major player in the race. The NL East rivals will square off for the second time in less than a week with Monday’s series opener from Citi Field.

This MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will be held at Citi Field in Flushing, New York, at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, April 22, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

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Odds Analysis

Poor Steven Matz is facing a dilemma. The Mets’ expected starter on Monday is eager to get back on the hill after giving up eight runs and not retiring a batter in what has to be one of the worst starts in MLB history. That start will come against the Phillies, who just raked him over the coals. That game was an outlier to the season he’s had so far, though.

The Phils got a split of the first two games of the 19-game season series by scoring 10 times in the first en route to the 14-3 victory. The Mets took the opener, 7-6, in 11 innings despite Noah Syndergaard giving up five earned in 5.0 innings. The teams easily cashed the over in both games with a combined total of 30 runs.

Probable Pitchers

Steven better pick himself off the Matz after his last outing where he allowed eight base runners, all of whom scored, in the loss. The good news is that only six of the eight runs were earned, elevating Matz’s ERA to 4.96. That alone tells the story of how good he was in his first few outings.

Over his first three starts Matz allowed just three earned on 12 hits over 16.1 innings posting a 1-0 record, so it’s safe to say this was just one of those days. He hasn’t beaten the Phils in six career starts and his ERA against them ballooned to 5.96. However, prior to that last outing his ERA was a respectable 3.57 across 22.2 innings.

The Phillies could turn to Jake Arrieta as their starter for Monday’s opener. The former Cy Young winner was sharp in his first three starts going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA. He won his 100th career game earlier this season against Miami allowing five hits and one run in 7.0 innings.

Arrieta heads into Wednesday’s game against the Mets with a 2-3 record and 2.34 ERA in 10 career outings against them.

Key Stat

10 – The Phils plated 10 runs in the first inning of their 14-3 win over the Mets, knocking Matz out of the box after eight hitters and zero outs. That’s right, Matz did not record an out. He had some help from shortstop Amed Rosario, who committed two errors in the frame that led to a pair of unearned runs on Matz’s line, but the Phils also smacked the ball around the yard.

Getting three-run homers from Scott Kingery and Maikel Franco, along with a two-run double from Realmuto, the Phils showed no mercy. Matz was gone before an out was recorded and the Phils had their highest scoring game of the season and their third with double-digit runs scored.

Free MLB ATS Picks

The Phils have a potent offense, but what they did against Matz and the Mets is something that doesn’t happen often. Matz has been solid and we could chalk that last outing up to being an off night. I’m sure he’s eager to get back on the bump and have a better showing. Sometimes it takes things like that to keep players motivated over the course of a long season. And of course a demotion is always incentivizing. Both teams can score and I expect runs to cross the plate in a game the Mets get behind their man Matz.

MLB Pick: New York Mets 6, Philadelphia Phillies 4

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