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The New York Mets will journey to the Midwest over the weekend to take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a best of three series while both teams battle it out in the two most highly contested divisions in baseball. It’s hard to put too much emphasis on a game—or even a series—in early May, but for teams in the NL East and NL Central, every game and every series is big. Milwaukee needs the series as they’ve been a much better team at home and need to capitalize on that though the Mets, to this point, have been better on the road.
The three-game weekend series between the Mets and Brewers starts on Friday, May 3, 2019at Miller Park, with first pitch slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. The series will be broadcast locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers took two out of three from the Mets in New York last weekend with New York salvaging the series finale to avoid the sweep. Milwaukee’s offense dominated the first two games, scoring a combined 18 runs.
Overall, the Brewers’ offense is fourth in the NL in runs scored and have an NL leading 57 home runs. Only 20 of those home runs have come on the road. The Brewers are hitting .221 with a .696 OPS on the road compared to a .266 average and .853 OPS at home with 37 bombs.
Milwaukee’s offense stuck it to the Mets on the road last week and could be even better at home this weekend.
Christian Yelich is the centerpiece of this offense with .353/.460/.804 slash line. He leads the league with 14 home runs and has 34 RBIs. He’s been amazing, but like most of this team, the vast majority of that production has come at home.
Yelich’s health is also worth watching as the outfielder is dealing with back discomfort though he’s expected to play this weekend.
The outlook for the Brewers chances without Yelich. Without him, the offense isn’t nearly as strong particularly with Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun all batting below the Mendoza Line. On the good side, Aguilar’s bat seems to finally be picking up with three home runs over the last few days.
As for the Mets, their offense has scored just three fewer runs than the Brewers in two less games. Their OPS isn’t as good and they haven’t shown as much power, but they have a higher team average and OBP, playing a different style of ball.
Pete Alonso is the slugger on the team and he continues to rake though he’s settling down a bit. He’s still got a 1.024 OPS. Michael Conforto has been excellent as well with six bombs. Other than those two, the most anyone has is three.
Jeff McNeil has been an on base machine, moving around the diamond and posting a .457 OBP.
Probable Pitchers
Meet the Matz. Steven Matz gets the start to open up this series for the Mets. He had one truly terrible outing that’s elevated his ERA, but has still been New York’s best pitcher though the season’s first month.
The southpaw is 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA including an eight-run disaster against Philadelphia. Without that, he’s 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA.
Matz toppled the Brew Crew in his last start, throwing seven innings, allowing two runs on five hits and no walks while collecting his third win of the season.
In his short career, Matz has had plenty of success against Milwaukee, going 4-1 in five starts with a 3.16 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 31.1 innings of work.
Following Matz to the mound for the Mets will be Zack Wheeler who gets the start in the middle game of the three game set. Wheeler has been hot and cold so far, going 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA. He’s pitched better of late, going 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in his last four starts. His strikeout numbers are up over one per inning this season though his walk rate is also elevated. Even so, he’s been able to keep the ball in the yard and thus has a solid 3.56 FIP.
The 29-year old right-hander went six innings in his last start and allowed four runs to the Reds in a game the Mets eventually lost. He pitched okay, but it was certainly a step backwards after three straight starts where he combined to allow five runs in 20 innings, including a seven inning shutout against the Phillies two starts ago. Against the Brew Crew, Wheeler is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts.
Wrapping up the series, the Mets will turn to their weakest link in the rotation: Jason Vargas. This should give Milwaukee a chance to leave the series with a win.
Best case scenario is five solid innings and then a bullpen game the rest of the way and the Mets’ pen has been suspect. Worst case scenario is a very short outing and early deficit for New York.
Vargas has been a negative WAR player this year. He’s 1-1 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in 20.1 innings pitched. He’s already allowed four home runs and 12 walks while striking out just 15 and pitching to a 6.11 FIP, showing the veteran lefty is actually lucky his ERA is where it is.
The 36-year old, however, has allowed no more than a single run in each of his last three starts. He’s only last between four and 5.1 innings in each, but that’s about all you can expect: two times through the order.
Going against this trio for the Mets should be some veterans for the Brewers with Gio Gonzalez, Zach Davies, and Jhoulys Chacin lined up for this three-game series.
Gonzalez made his season debut last week for the Brewers against the Mets and pitched well, allowing two runs in five innings on six hits and walk. He took a no decision in the game, but Milwaukee eventually lost.
Prior to that start, Gonzalez was pitching in the International League with the Yankees Triple-A squad after signing late. He was 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three starts there before opting out of his contract and latching on in Milwaukee.
Gonzalez isn’t a top of the rotation arm, but he’s proven to be a solid Major League pitcher in 12 seasons. The 33-year old has a 3.69 career ERA. He also pitched well in five starts down the stretch for Milwaukee last year, posting a 3-0 record and 2.13 ERA. He had a 2.96 ERA in 32 starts for the Nationals in 2017 and was sixth in Cy Young voting that year.
For the other two Brewer starters for this series, Davies has been the team’s best pitcher. He’s 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in six starts spanning 32.2 innings. Luck has played a role for Davies as he has a 3.91 FIP and 1.316 WHIP. He’s walking too many betters and allowed his share of hits, but he’s done well to keep those hits in the yard and minimize damage. He doesn’t strike many batters out, but does induce weak contact.
Of note for Davies is the fact he’s struggled at home in his Brewers’ career. Overall he has a 3.05 ERA on the road, but a 4.49 mark in 49 home games. He’s also got a 5.76 ERA in six starts against the Mets.
Chacin rounds out this series. He was the team’s ace last year, going 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA in 192.2 innings of work. He hasn’t been nearly as good in seven starts here in 2019.
So far this year, Chacin in 3-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.311 WHIP. He’s walking more and allowing more home runs. He needs to refine his command in and out of the zone and get back to where he was last year.
Encouragingly, the 31-year old right-hander is coming off a six-inning shutout against the Rockies. He did walk three in that game, but kept the ball in the yard despite a really high fly ball percentage.
Live Betting
With both offenses able to generate runs at a similar rate so far this season and both starting staffs offering some level of optimism, but some questions on depth, the bullpens could factor heavily into this series. That’s good news for the Brewers.
Both the Mets and Brewers were supposed to have strong pens. Neither have been as good as expected in the early going, but the Brewers have been around average.
Milwaukee’s pen has been used a lot early and that could wear them out down the stretch. For now, though it’s still early enough that it shouldn’t be too much of a concern. As a unit, the Brewers’ pen has a 4.63 ERA. That’s far from great, but better than the Mets’ 5.38.
For the Brewers, Jeremy Jeffress is back after missing most of the season so far. He adds to the depth in the backend. Josh Hader is still hard to hit with 31 strikeouts in 14.2 innings. Junior Guerra is also pitching well in relief. Walks are an issue for the pen as a whole, but there are some strong pieces.
For the Mets, they have Edwin Diaz locking down the ninth inning. Between Hader and Diaz we have two of the games’ most dominant relievers, but Hader has been used for more than an innings, Diaz has not. Given the usage, Hader should have a bigger impact in this series.
Leading up to Diaz, Jeurys Familia is supposed to be the primary set up option, but he’s been bad. Luis Avilan has been worse and Justin Wilson ins on the IL, leaving the Mets without a good lefty option for matchups.
MLB Pick
Even though both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have struggled so far this season, they’re still the most dangerous arms for the Mets and the Brewers will miss out on them in this series.
Matz has looked good and already showed he can shut down this Milwaukee offense, but the offense is much different at home.
Look for the Brewers’ bats to come alive, at least in the last two games of this series. With the Mets’ bullpen struggling as well, the Brew Crew should be able to win the series at home.
The Brewers’ starting pitching isn’t that great, but Davies is pitching well and Chacin is better than he’s shown to this point. Gonzalez should also be able to at least keep it close in Game 1. The Mets have enough offense and a lockdown closer to steal a game, but in the end, look for Yelich and company to produce well at home.
Take the Milwaukee to top New York in two of three games at home.
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