This matchup seems familiar. The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox are set to matchup in the ALCS, a rematch of last year’s NLDS. In that series, the Astros took care of business rather easily. This time around, the Sox will look to put up a bigger fight and they’ve got some momentum, coming off an impressive series win against the Bronx Bombers. Can the Astros become the first team since the 2015 Royals to reach the World Series in back-to-back years or is this the Sox’s year after they finished the regular season with a franchise record 108 wins?
The ALCS between the Astros and Red Sox opens on Saturday, October 13, 2018 at Fenway Park. Boston will host the first two games along with Game 6 and Game 7, if needed, with the other games in Houston’s Minute Maid Park. Each game of this series will be broadcast on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros handled the Sox well last postseason, taking care of business against Chris Sale in Game 1 and holding the series momentum from there.
The regular season battles between these two teams this year were relatively evenly split. The Astros took four of the seven games, but the total run differential was only three in favor of Houston.
Overall, this should be a great showdown between the best two teams in baseball. The Sox led the sport in wins while Houston was second and sported a better run differential.
There were questions about the Sox going into the postseason with back-to-back years unable to advance past the division series, but Boston had an impressive showing against the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Indians were a trendy sleeper pick coming into October and Houston handled the Tribe with ease.
Starting Pitching Exploration
The Astros rotation was the cream of the crop all year, pitching to a 3.16 ERA in 955.1 innings of work. In a season that’s highlighted bullpens like never before, Houston didn’t need their bullpen to take on a bigger role because their rotation was also stacked.
In the playoffs, that means Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton get the starts and Lance McCullers slides into the bullpen.
Verlander is a future Hall of Famer and continues to dominate. He was 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA and 290 strikeouts in 214 innings this year. He’s also a proven postseason pitcher. He tossed 5.1 innings and allowed two runs against the Indians in the ALDS and is 12-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 23 career postseason games.
Moving beyond him, Cole has developed into an ace himself. He went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 200.1 innings spread over 32 games this year. He followed that up with seven innings of one run ball against Cleveland in his ALDS start, striking out 12.
Beyond Verlander and Cole, Keuchel was the only other Astro to start in the ALDS. He went five innings and allowed two runs. He didn’t get the win in the game as Houston grabbed the lead after he left. Despite that, he still keep the team in the game.
Keuchel finished the season strong for the Astros and posted a 12-11 record with a 3.74 ERA, not bad for the No. 3 starter. Meanwhile, Morton’s 15-3 record and 3.13 ERA will do in the fourth spot. Morton is a bit of a concern as he was injured down the stretch and didn’t overly impress when ramped back up. Still, with the strong rotation ahead of him. He won’t be counted on too heavily coming off the injury. The same isn’t true of the Sox’s Chris Sale.
Sale is the ace for Boston and needs to deal for Boston to matchup with Houston in the starting rotation. He looked good in the ALDS against the Yankees, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, but was limited in the number of pitches he could throw. If he’s still hindered in any way, that’s a major issue.
In any case, the southpaw finished the year going 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 158 innings pitched. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the game for years now, but did struggle against Houston in last year’s ALDS.
David Price is the other big arm for the Sox and his postseason career has been littered with disappointment, particularly when he’s starting. He needs to overcome that because he’s still an elite pitcher. He was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA this year in 176 innings.
After those two, the rest of the rotation is Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi, two solid mid-rotation arms, but nothing special, certainly a step down from Keuchel and Morton.
If solely based on starting pitching head-to-head, given the issues with Sale and Price in the postseason, the edge has to go to the Astros.
Offensive Comparison
This should be fun. Both of these teams can mash. They already showed that this postseason. Boston put up 27 runs in their four game series with the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Astros scored 21 in three games against Cleveland, hitting eight home runs.
Former Astro J.D. Martinez is one of the big bats in the Red Sox lineup. He was a huge offseason acquisition and is one of two likely MVP finalists in the Boston lineup alongside Mookie Betts. With Betts in the leadoff spot and Martinez in the middle of the order, opposing pitchers hardly have any time to get settled in before being ambushed.
Betts and Martinez combined for 75 homers and 210 RBIs in the regular season, but the lineup is more than just those two.
The team has a number of moving parts with role players like Steve Pearce and Brock Holt getting starts based on matchups. Holt had the first ever postseason cycle in the series against the Yankees and Pearce mashes lefties, making him an ideal platoon partner with Mitch Moreland at first base.
Beyond them, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and even Jackie Bradley Jr. make for a deep roster. Catcher is really the only hole in the order. Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez are more defensively centered.
Houston’s offense is equally dominant. Alex Bregman has emerged as a superstar this year. He had a few big homers last postseason and continued that trend this year after posting a .926 OPS and 31 homers in the regular season.
Carlos Correa’s bat is not playing well right now, but that’s about it. The rest of the order is hitting very well, including role players like Tony Kemp and Tyler White who are forcing their way into the lineup.
Of course, Houston also has George Springer and Jose Altuve who’ve proven themselves in big moments, too.
In the regular season, the Red Sox outscored and out homered Houston, but the Astros bats are hot and they’ve got confidence in the postseason having been there before and beaten these same Red Sox pitchers.
Bullpen Breakdown
Here lies Boston’s biggest Achilles Heel. The Sox have Craig Kimbrel to close out games, but the options leading up to him are a bit limited, forcing Alex Cora to harness his inner A.J. Hinch from last year and call up starters like Rick Porcello and Chris Sale in relief during the ALDS against the Yankees. It got them past New York, but didn’t inspire any more faith in the middle relief options going into the Houston series.
In the regular season, Boston’s pen did reasonably well. They pitched to a cumulative 3.72 ERA. That’s not bad, it ranked ninth in baseball, but it was the worst bullpen ERA of any AL playoff team other than the same Indians team the Astros rolled over in the ALDS.
While Hinch had to do some bullpen acrobats to get through the playoffs last year, he’s got a much deeper pen this time around. Ken Giles imploded last October, giving the team a void in the ninth inning. While Kimbrel is a better closer than Roberto Osuna, the latter is still a very solid option in the ninth. Meanwhile, the arms setting him up are far superior to those setting up Kimbrel.
Houston had the best bullpen ERA in baseball in the regular season with a 3.03 ERA and the unit allowed just a single run in 9.2 innings in the ALDS against Cleveland. Will Harris allowed the lone run while Colin McHugh, Ryan Pressly, Lance McCullers Jr., and Osuna all put up goose eggs.
Back to the Sox, Kimbrel struggled in the ALDS against New York, allowing three runs while Eduardo Rodriguez showed issues pitching in relief, too.
MLB Pick
The offense isn’t a question for either team, but the Sox have red flags on the mound. Sale and Price need to be good. The former was lit up by the Astros last year and the latter has a questionable postseason resume, at best.
Still, it’s hard to count out the team that won the most games in the regular season, particularly in a division that included the Yankees and a surprisingly good Rays team. The Sox have an impressive and versatile offense. They will score their runs, even against a deep rotation and bullpen like the one in Houston. Nevertheless, look for the Astros’ arms to hold them at bay enough to give their own offense a chance to do damage, particularly against the middle of the bullpen.
We should have some fun games here and hopefully a more competitive series than the ones we got in the divisional round.
In the end, the Astros look like the more complete team right now. They also have experience deep in the playoffs as well as confidence coming off last year’s series against Boston. Ignore the records. Ignore home field advantage. And, take Houston to beat the Sox in six games.
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