The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will wrap up the regular season with a three-game series in St. Louis with the middle game broadcast live on FOX on Saturday night. The Cubs figure to be eliminated by then while the Cardinals should have the NL Central wrapped up. With that in mind, can the Cubs still put up a good fight to end their season on a positive note against their hated rivals or will the Cards come out victorious in this one at home?
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Cubs is scheduled for Saturday, September 28, 2019, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
This has not been the season the Cubs have expected. The team is so good on paper. They’re the better offense. They’ve got big names in the rotation and the bullpen. This team should be the one to win the NL Central, but they’re going home after this series and the Cardinals have the division under wraps.
The Cubs do boast a similar run differential than the Cardinals but have seemingly been finding ways to lose—particularly of late—while St. Louis finds ways to win.
Head-to-head, the Cardinals have won nine of their 16 meetings, including sweeping the Cubs at Wrigley over the weekend. Now, these two teams meet at Busch Stadium which should make things much harder for the Cubs who have a dismal .408 winning percentage on the road.
Overall, the Cubs are 9-13 in September and have lost seven straights to fall out of postseason contention. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won six of seven and have a 46-24 record since the All-Star break. The Cardinals are also 20-games over-.500 at home.
Probable Pitchers
Miles Mikolas is scheduled to make the start for the Cardinals after he held the Cubs to a single run in 7.2 innings when he faced them last weekend, outdueling Yu Darvish in the process.
The Cardinals got the win in that game, arguably the best pitched game by Mikolas in several months.
Overall, the 30-year old right-hander had a bit of a disappointing season after he burst onto the scene last year coming over from some time in Japan. The righty was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA last year but is just 9-14 with a 4.16 ERA this season. He’s seen his walk rate remain low, but he’s allowed 27 home runs this season and has a much worse batting average against.
On the year, he’s thrown 184 innings and has a 1.223 WHIP. While he hasn’t been a top of the rotation type starter in 2019, he’s still be a solid option with a 103 ERA+, making him at worst a league average starter.
In addition to his strong showing in his last start against the Cubs, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last six starts as he’s been consistently able to keep his team in the game.
The Cubs aren’t indicating who will pitch opposite Mikolas, but it could end up being Darvish depending on when/if Cole Hamels is put back in the rotation to close the year.
Hamels could also get the start on Saturday, though Darvish is the most likely option. Either way, it’ll be a veteran arm.
If Hamels, he could be a bit rusty as the veteran southpaw hasn’t pitched in a couple weeks, but he’s been solid this year, going 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA though his 1.416 WHIP and 4.22 FIP indicate he has been a bit lucky.
As for Darvish, he threw well last Sunday against the Cardinals in the loss, going 8.1 innings and allowing just three runs while striking out 12. It was his third straight game with a dozen strikeouts.
Darvish was slow to adapt after being signed by the Cubs last year but has thrown well down the stretch. He’s allowed just eight runs over his last five starts, spanning 34.1 innings of work. He’s also only walked seven in his last 14 starts.
Despite the solid control, he’s just 6-8 on the season with a ton of no decisions. On the year, the Cubs are just 13-18 when he takes the ball.
Overall, the 33-year old right-hander has pitched to a 3.98 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 178.2 innings of work. He’s got a 112 ERA+ and impressive 4.09 K:BB ratio. While all of that is positive, he has been prone to the long ball, allowing a league leading 33 balls to leave the park. That’s been his Achilles Heel this season.
Live Betting
The starting pitching matchup is rather balanced, but the Cubs team is flat right now and the Cardinals are playing well.
Chicago does have the better offensive numbers on the year, but the Cubs are dealing with some key injuries as Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant are all banged up.
In the second half, a lot of the Cubs’ players have fallen flat. Nicholas Castellanos has been a great addition by the Cubs from the Tigers midseason and has provided a .327 batting average with a 1.021 OPS, 16 home runs and 21 doubles in 50 games.
The Cardinals don’t have players with those kinds of gaudy numbers, but the likes of Paul Goldscmidt, Marcell Ozuna and Paul DeJong give the team a quality heart of the order. And from there, the rest of the lineup comes together.
In the pen, the Cardinals have the edge. In fact, St. Louis has the best bullpen ERA in the National League. The comparison of these two pens is most clear when looking at the ninth innings.
The Cubs have gotten Craig Kimbrel back from injury, but the veteran closer has a 6.53 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cardinals inserted Carlos Martinez into the closer role midseason with the injury to Jordan Hicks and he has a 3.30 ERA and has been a strong, reliable option in the ninth.
MLB Pick
The season is effectively over for the Cubs while the Cardinals are preparing for October. That alone gives the Cardinals a nice edge.
When you consider how bad the Cubs have been on the road and how well St. Louis has played in the second half—particularly at home—this should be a rather easy win for the Cardinals.
Rivalry games like this are always a wildcard, but these are clearly two teams going in opposite directions. The Cubs are getting ready for winter after falling out of the playoff chase in epic fashion. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have at least one playoff series ahead of them.
Look for a solid pitching performance from both starters, but the Cardinals offense and bullpen will pull this one out as the team tries to streak to the end.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Cubs 3
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