The Boston Red Sox earned homefield advantage in the World Series with a 108-win season and they’ve taken advantage of the honor, winning the first two games, hitting the road with a sizeable cushion. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers now find themselves in desperation mode. This Game 3 is a must win for the Dodgers. Can L.A. come up big when they need it and use the chance of venue to their advantage or will the Sox have this thing all but wrapped up by the end of the night on Friday?
First pitch for the Game 3 of the World Series between the Dodgers and Red Sox is scheduled for Friday, October 26, 2018, at 8:09 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The biggest difference between the Dodgers and Red Sox in the first two games of the World Series has been the ability to get the clutch hit. Of the 12 runs scored by Boston, nine have come with two-outs, often after a pitcher thinks he got strike three or a Sox’s runner barely beat out a base hit.
Boston has been able to do the little things to win while the Dodgers have made small mistakes that the Sox have exploited. In the NLDS and NLCS, L.A. slugged their way out of these issues. They haven’t don’t that yet this series.
Statistically, these are two elite—and deep—offenses. We’ve seen, primarily, their right-handed heavily lineups through the first two games, but that should change in Game 3. Both teams hit better against righties, but the Dodgers may benefit the most from the switch.
Against New York and Houston, the Sox played teams that were stacked with right-handed hitters. The Dodgers are a bit different with guys like Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy. Those are some big boppers from the left-side. It’s a bit of a different look for Boston pitchers to face. Perhaps having those three starting the game rather than coming off the bench helps.
On the other side, the Red Sox lineup has delivered top to bottom, manufacturing runs, stealing bases, and hitting extra base hits. But they’ll have a different look in Game 3. Mitch Moreland will start at first against Buehler with Steve Pearce on the bench, but the bigger difference will be getting J.D. Martinez in the outfield since there is no DH.
The Boston outfield is already elite. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi cannot sit. They’ve been excellent all year. Jackie Bradley Jr. is the weaker bat, but he’s a gold-glove caliber defender and hit a couple bombs in the ALCS. His bat is hot right now. The team could play Betts at second. He was an infielder coming up. Sitting Ian Kinsler may be easier than sitting Bradley, but how does that impact the defense. Also, the Sox have a virtual out in the catcher’s spot. With a pitcher’s spot, too, that gives the team two nearly automatic outs at the bottom of the order rather than just one.
Probable Pitchers
It’s been all lefties to start the first two games of this series. Here in Game 3, both teams will turn to a righty for the start. For the Dodgers, that means Walker Buehler. For Boston, that figures to be Rick Porcello after Nathan Eovaldi has already had two appearances this series.
Buehler is just a rookie, but he hasn’t pitched like it this year. The 24-year old right-hander has been nails all year, including pitching with confidence here in October. That started with a dazzling performance against the Rockies in Game 163 and while he struggled a bit against the Braves in the ALDS, he’s maintained his composure.
The young righty has electric stuff and has been impressive in his ability to turn that into big league success. In the regular season, he went 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in his 24 games, spanning 137.1 innings. His 3.04 FIP help highlight that his numbers were built on more than just luck. The youngster has shown amazing command at such a young age with a 4.08 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also been good at keep the ball in the yard.
Buehler starting at home is particularly dangerous for Boston as he pitched to a 1.93 ERA in 14 home games this year.
On the other side of this matchup, Porcello has pitched better on the road than at Fenway. His road ERA isn’t sub-2, but it’s solid at 3.86. He was also 10-3 on the road.
Overall, the righty was 17-7 in 33 starts. He has kept the Sox in the game and the amazing Boston offense has been able to do the rest. He pitched to a 4.28 ERA and 4.01 FIP. His 102 ERA+ show he’s been just slightly above average, but that may be good enough the way the Sox are hitting.
One possible wrinkle for Porcello has been his usage. He’s been used in the rotation and pen this postseason and his schedule is all off which could impact his success. He’s been a bit of a mixed bag in October, pitching well against the Yankees in the ALDS, but slumping a bit in the ALCS against the Astros.
Live Betting
The bullpen was supposed to favor the Dodgers, but to this point in the series, the Boston pen has looked better than L.A.’s.
Both franchises put up nearly identical bullpen ERAs in the regular season, but the Dodgers added a couple starters to their pen down the stretch and into October to help. So far, Alex Wood has struggled. L.A. has also yet to use Kenley Jansen as they’ve been trailing late in the games. If Dave Roberts can manage the pen with the lead, things will look a bit different. Still, for now, there are concerns here.
For Boston, the Sox have gotten impressive innings in both games from Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel. They have a day off heading into Game 3, but can those two both keep up the dominance in three straight games against the same team? Based on how they’ve looked so far, they just might, but it’s still a question worth considering.
Another interesting aspect to the Red Sox bullpen has been Alex Cora’s game plan to use a starter to set up Kimbrel. Nathan Eovaldi was that guy in Game 1 and Game 2. He could start Game 4. Would Cora go to David Price or Chris Sale to set up Kimbrel? Or will he have to stray from that plan?
It's not like the Sox don’t have options in the pen. Beside Kelly, Ryan Braiser is a quality option. Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz are in the pen for this series, too, to help matchup against some of the better lefty swingers in the Dodger order.
MLB Pick ?
This is it. The Dodgers need to win Game 3 to have a chance in this series. With the series back in L.A., Walker Buehler having dominated at home, and a chance to hit against a righty starter, things are lining up for a better result for the Dodgers in this one. Look for them to get their first win of the series.
Buehler has looked comfortable on the mound in big spots and it’s hard to find a bigger spot that this. Look for the young righty to go six solid innings which will allow Dave Roberts to better manage the bullpen for the final three innings. With Kenley Jansen able to go two, it really shortens the gap between him and the starter. Roberts has spoken highly of his pen, but they haven’t gotten the job done in the early going this series.
At the plate, a return to their left-handed lineup against the right-handed arm of Porcello could do wonders for sparking the offense. While Dodgers Stadium isn’t that friendly to the hitters, the L.A. lineup still managed to lead the NL in homers playing half their games here. The Dodgers will also get back to playing in warmer temperatures which should help the offense, too.
The Sox have positioned themselves well, but the Dodgers need to win this game and should be able to pull through with the hometown fans behind them. L.A. has had their backs against the wall a few times this season after a slow start and taking an extra game to win the division. Each time they’ve faltered, they’ve bounced back.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Red Sox 3
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