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Kentucky Derby Betting: Chad Brown is a believer in Good Magic. Good Magic has been one of the best three-year-old’s we’ve seen this year. It’s no surprise as he was named the best two-year-old horse in the country after good performances at some of the top racetracks in the country.
His first race came at Saratoga, where he finished a length behind the winner. He looked impressive enough to be entered into the Champagne Stakes, where he finished a ½ length behind Firenze Fire to again come in second place.
That set the stage for his most impressive race to date. He was considered something of a long-shot at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar because he was running against the top two-year-old’s in the country. However, he romped over a field that included four horses that will be running at the Kentucky Derby, winning by 4 ¼ lengths.
Good Magic followed that up as a three-year-old by finishing third at the Fountain of Youth Stakes before once again returning to the Winner’s Circle at the Blue Grass Stakes.
The Kentucky Derby will go to post on Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 6:34 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Catch the Kentucky Derby live on NBC.
Career Record: 2-2-1
Career Earnings: $1,855,000
Kentucky Derby Points: 134
Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu: +705
Good Magic has some great genes. He was sired by the legendary Curlin and his dam was Glinda the Good. Curlin is one of the most successful horses of all-time, winning the 2007 Preakness Stakes, the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the 2008 Dubai World Cup.
The trainer for Good Magic is Chad Brown. This will be Brown’s fifth horse to enter the Kentucky Derby, with his best previous finish coming in 2013 when Normandy Invasion finished fourth. He is on the record saying that this is his best chance yet to win a Kentucky Derby.
His jockey for this race will be Jose Ortiz. Ortiz has only appeared on this stage three times before, with his best finish coming on Samraat back in 2014.
Why Good Magic Will Win the Kentucky Derby
It’s hard to oversell Good Magic’s performance at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. The field was loaded with talented two-year-old’s, but Good Magic was clearly the best horse in the race. He put up a speed rating of 105, which is phenomenal too.
Good Magic also has the experience that some of the other horses lack. His five starts came at five different racetracks, and he has already raced against a good chunk of the field. Also, he has faced some rather large fields already and showed that he can win from the outside after his performance at Keeneland.
Why Good Magic Won't Win the Kentucky Derby
His speed ratings are not where you want them to be at this point of his career. His third-place finish at the Fountain of Youth Stakes was pretty disappointing, and although he won the Blue Grass Stakes, his numbers there weren’t great. He put up a 98 speed rating both times.
The Final Verdict
This is a tough one for me. My gut instinct is to say that he is worth some coin in the hope that he recaptures the form we saw at Del Mar, but his last two performances are a bit worrying. I’ll probably end up putting something small on him on race day, but I won’t feel too confident.
Always Dreaming is a nice horse, and we have no doubt that he'll cover the distance. We could certainly state a claim for him winning the Derby, too. But to ask him to go from a 5 to 2 second choice in the Florida Derby to a 4 to 1 potential favorite in the Kentucky Derby is a bit much. We'd be in at 10 to 1, but not at 4 to 1 on Always Dreaming.
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2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders