The 2022 Australian Open may end up being more known for what happens to World No. 1 Novak Djokovic rather than who ends up winning the tournament. Whether Djokovic ends up playing is still in debate as of this writing, as the Australian government has not yet decided whether Djokovic will be allowed to play. Australia has gone off the deep end with COVID restrictions and Djokovic is unvaccinated and may not be allowed to compete. Oddsmakers have taken this news into account and Djokovic is actually listed as the second choice in the betting odds, with Daniil Medvedev listed as the favorite. Let’s look at Australian Open odds and Australian Open picks.
Men's Australian Open Odds
Daniil Medvedev +180
Novak Djokovic +210
Alexander Zverev +335
Rafael Nadal +950
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2800
Jannik Sinner +3500
Andrey Rublev +5000
Felix Auger Aliassime +5000
Carlos Alcaraz +5500
Matteo Berrettini +6500
All other players are listed with odds of +10000 or more.
You really have the top three in Australian Open odds and then everyone else. The Australian Open has been all about Novak Djokovic, as he has won this tournament the last three years and a total of nine times. If not for the insanity surrounding his entry into the country and his lack of practice time, Djokovic would be listed as the odds-on favorite. Perhaps Djokovic gets to play and can put all of this behind him, but it is a tall task.
Daniil Medvedev is now the current betting favorite and it makes some sense if you think Djokovic doesn’t play or has trouble getting into top form. Medvedev lost last year’s Australian Open Final to Djokovic but Medvedev came back and beat Djokovic in the U.S. Open Final. There is always some concern about the stamina of Medvedev in the heat in Australia, and he is probably overvalued as the favorite.
The other player in the top three in the betting odds is Alexander Zverev. He is looking to win this first major. There is no question he has a big serve and is overdue to win a major, but is Australia where he breaks through? He seems really overvalued at odds of just over 3-1.
All of the other players, including Rafael Nadal are listed as longshots, Nadal has played well leading up to the Australian Open but he has never had much success in this event and it is hard to make a case for him winning.
Longshots this year could at least be worth considering and leading the way is Jannik Sinner. He is ranked in the Top 10 and we know he likes Australia, as he went unbeaten in the ATP Cup. Another big price is Matteo Berrettini who made the final of Wimbledon last year. He has a big serve and perhaps Australia is where he breaks through.
Australian Open Picks
I think you have to go with either Djokovic or Medvedev as the top pick. Zverev is going to face one of those in the semifinals and I don’t see him winning. It would be really appealing to choose a longshot in this year’s Australian Open with the uncertainty surrounding Djokovic, but who do you pick? Longshots have not had any value in majors with Djokovic, Federer and Nadal dominating for many years, but that is starting to change. Jannik Sinner could have some appeal at odds of 35-1. He has shown the ability to play with the top three and he could make a deep run. If you really want to throw a dart then taking Denis Shapovalov is worth considering. He changed his coaching team and it seems to have made a difference. He looked really good in the ATP Cup and he actually played pretty well a year ago. He made the semifinals at Wimbledon and if he gets in good rhythm, he could pull off some upsets.
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