Heavyweight knockout artists Francis Ngannou 14-3, 10 KOs, 4 SUBs and Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10-0, 9 KOs meet UFC 249 on Saturday, May 9 at the Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The card airs live starting 10pm ET.
Ready for a showdown between the heavyweight division’s best knockout artists? Honestly, which MMA fans say no to that question? The violence that the big men can deliver is like anything else in the UFC - and that alone is reason enough to tune in when Francis Ngannou meets Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC 249.
Stipe Miocic might be the champ, but it’s Ngannou that’s the scariest man on the planet. He sure looks the part: 6’5”, 265 pounds and absolutely ripped. Donning the Predator mask during his walkout only adds to that killer aura. But his in-cage work is undeniable, and he comes into the matchup with three straight knockout wins over Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos - all first round knockouts, none lasting much longer than a minute.
But Ngannou isn’t the only African laying waste to the weight class. Jairzinho Rozenstruik has shot up the rankings to the tune of a 10-0 record, and the last-second win in his last outing left Alistair Overeem’s lip literally split into two. He has knocked out all but one of his professional opponents, a stat that includes all four of his UFC opponents. We still don’t know how high he can rise, but it’s already obvious that he’s got a place in the top 10.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Ngannou as a big -265 favorite, with Rozenstruik at +225 on the comeback. There hasn’t been much movement since then, though that could change quickly in the coming days. Let’s take a deeper look into the stats and break down your best betting values.
Heavyweight
Francis Ngannou -269 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +241
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +250 / -325
Over/under 1.5 rounds: Over -115 / under -115
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Ngannou 2.15 / Rozenstruik 3.72
Striking accuracy: Ngannou 37% / Rozenstruik 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Ngannou 1.97 / Rozenstruik 3.05
Striking defense: Ngannou 48% / Rozenstruik 32%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Ngannou 0 / Rozenstruik 0
Takedown accuracy: Ngannou N/A / Rozenstruik N/A
Takedown defense: Ngannou 71% / Rozenstruik 75%
Submission average: Ngannou 0.5 / Rozenstruik 0.0
Though Rozenstruik knocked out Alistair Overeem, the fight did little to raise his overall stock. He was clearly outclassed in the striking exchanges, and only a hail mary punch with less than 10 seconds left in the fight cleared his path to victory. That’s not to say that “Bigi Boi” is a no-talent headhunter, as surviving five rounds against a legendary kickboxer is impressive in itself.
In comparison, look how Ngannou beat Overeem: he needed less than two minutes, confidently marched forward, prompted a reaction than launched the Uppercut from Hell. Bigi Boi might have cemented himself as a knockout puncher, but Ngannou’s mix of size, speed and athleticism is the entire package. His emergence has shades of Brock Lesnar, who simply overwhelmed dudes upon entering the UFC.
Of course, nobody can withstand flush hits to the chin for long - not in this division. Ngannou should have almost every advantage in this fight, but it won’t matter if he makes the mistake of letting Bigi Boi plant one on his chin.
UFC Odds Pick: Ngannou to win by TKO
We’re gonna skip Ngannou’s money line and go straight to the victory prop. While there is a chance that The Predator fights conservatively against another heavy hitter, it’s highly unlikely that he goes 25 minutes without pulling the trigger a few times. In a matchup where he’s bigger and faster than his opponent, the likelier outcome is that he spends a round or two getting comfortable, then absolutely tees off in hopes of making a title statement.
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