No. 4 heavyweight Alistair Overeem (45-17, 23 KOs, 17 SUBs) will meet surging heavyweight prospect Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik at UFC on ESPN 7 on Saturday, December 7 at the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The card airs live on ESPN starting 9pm ET.
Every time it seems like The Reem is finished, he makes us remember that he is still a force in the UFC heavyweight division. After back-to-back first round knockout losses to Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes, the 39-year old has bounced back nicely with consecutive wins (both first round knockouts) against Sergei Pavlovich and Alexey Oleynik.
Those past four opponents should tell you something about where The Demolition Man is at in his career. Championship caliber opponents are a bit much for him, but he outclasses mid-tier competition with ease. Perhaps there is another title run in him, but time is running out for a fighter who has been professionally fighting for 20 years.
This Saturday, Overeem meets Suriname’s Jairzinho Rozenstruik, a 9-0 knockout artist. “Bigi Boy” has enjoyed immediate success inside the octagon, notching three knockouts in three UFC appearances. Most recently, he needed less than 30 seconds to blast through former champion Andrei Arlovksi - the biggest win of his young career. Now, the 31-year old has a huge opportunity to break into the contender ranks against a top 5 fighter.
Is it too much, too soon for Rozenstruik? The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu certainly seem to think so. But let’s break down the stats and go over your best betting picks. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available to make in-play wagers as needed.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem -135 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +105
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +365 / -555
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Overeem 3.79 / Rozenstruik 3.22
Striking accuracy: Overeem 73% / Rozenstruik 70%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Overeem 4.91 / Rozenstruik 3.05
Striking defense: Overeem 60% / Rozenstruik 33%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Overeem 0.48 / Rozenstruik 0
Takedown accuracy: Overeem 28% / Rozenstruik -
Takedown defense: Overeem 73% / Rozenstruik 66%
Submission average: Overeem 0.36 / Rozenstruik 0
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Here’s what we know about Rozenstruik so far: he hits very, very hard. We covered how he needed half a minute to ice Arlovski, but he starched Junior Albini in 54 second and poor Allen Crowder lasted less than 10 seconds. Heavyweights that put dudes out that quickly are going to get noticed quick, and Rozenstruik is no exception.
But what happens if he doesn’t blast through his opponent? Prior to the UFC, the only other fight of note came in Rizin against Andrey Kovalev, and the African big man eked out a split decision win. From what we’ve seen, it looks like he has no wrestling or ground game to speak of - suggesting that a good grappler would give him major problems.
Of course, the ability to go into deep waters might not matter against Overeem, whose glass chin might as well be a bullseye for killshot artists like Rozenstruik. The Dutchman simply does not have the ability to take more than a few big shots, and the sight of him being punched into the stanky leg dance is a common occurrence in his losses.
UFC Odds Pick: Overeem to win at
Thought it’s hard to have any confidence in Overeem’s chin, we’re leaning on his striking prowess here. Rozenstruik might hit hard, but The Reem is a former champion kickboxer who knows how to protect his chin. Rozenstruik might be a killer, but he doesn’t have an elite level skillset.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision
Rozenstruik has seen the final bell just once in his nine pro fights. Overeem’s fights have ended before the final bell in eight of his past nine appearances. Given the finishing abilities of both fighters, it’s safe to say that this one doesn’t go the distance.
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